{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f400a326-af0a-4e22-8802-c99884d74097", "symbol": "FMNY", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III NEW YORK MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.47, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.635, "architecture_energy": 25.616, "architecture_maturity": 32.156, "architecture_confidence": 66.883, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.39, "rotation_up": 17.4, "upward_expansion": 17.32, "deceleration": 64.45, "rotation_down": 59.16, "downward_expansion": 39.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.408938, 26.525831, 26.554061, 26.55221 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.4563, "trend_reference": 26.551345, "distance_from_trend": -0.00358, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.330773, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.447951, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004036, "excess_performance": -0.129661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044433, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015171, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.659835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28247, "relative_activity": 0.658525, "balance": 0.659835, "dry_up": 0.87198, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010025, "annualized_volatility": 0.039144, "from_high_reference": -0.021388, "from_low_reference": 0.059743 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.551345, "fair_value_reference": 25.330773, "structural_low": 26.169453, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.004632, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.017862, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.018402, "worst_return": -0.015518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012288, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.076857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019693, "worst_return": 0.002552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00747, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.117301, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029667, "worst_return": -0.014026, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008441, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000655, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.027856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018876, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 26.29, "volume": 24264, "typical_volume": 42707.7, "trend": 26.551999, "fair_value": 25.297596, "relative_strength": -7.403188, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.320024, "energy": 8.074202, "activity_lines": [ 26.554435, 26.616782, 26.586666, 26.576235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.275, "volume": 34829, "typical_volume": 42876.65, "trend": 26.551686, "fair_value": 25.313589, "relative_strength": -8.198948, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.843643, "energy": 27.118594, "activity_lines": [ 26.435952, 26.553758, 26.561224, 26.558364 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.4563, "volume": 28247, "typical_volume": 42894.35, "trend": 26.551345, "fair_value": 25.330773, "relative_strength": -10.447951, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.635181, "energy": 25.615836, "activity_lines": [ 26.408938, 26.525831, 26.554061, 26.55221 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }