{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f4011e9d-585b-4b08-870c-81cdf86f59d0",
    "symbol": "IDUN-B",
    "name": "Idun Industrier AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 57.02,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 37.02,
    "architecture_energy": 16.703,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.943,
    "architecture_confidence": 49.706,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.02,
        "rotation_up": 40.89,
        "upward_expansion": 58.85,
        "deceleration": 64.14,
        "rotation_down": 23.42,
        "downward_expansion": 18.18
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        323.066667,
        321.163636,
        322.949346,
        320.297193
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 332.0,
    "trend_reference": 318.343663,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.042898,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 276.105722,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202438,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -10.288447,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.038131,
    "excess_performance": -0.023363,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042898,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011132,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.202438,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022233,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.102884,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056991,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038131,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.479832,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11122,
      "relative_activity": 0.364386,
      "balance": 2.479832,
      "dry_up": 2.097638,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.06696,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.247457,
      "from_high_reference": -0.149897,
      "from_low_reference": 0.169264
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 318.343663,
      "fair_value_reference": 276.105722,
      "structural_low": 283.939342,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.027219,
        "positive_rate": 0.642857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.642857,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005103,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.126728,
        "worst_return": -0.118289,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.032975,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.054775,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.081006,
        "worst_return": -0.127019,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.051282,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.088386,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.50314,
        "worst_return": -0.07472,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.124948,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.243074,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.699446,
        "worst_return": -0.19732,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-06-30",
        "end": "2024-01-19",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.036111,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-04-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.078212,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023746,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.153488,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-09-13",
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        "return": -0.041494,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.170124,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.218589,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051282,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.019074,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.052941,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.048781,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": 0.092652,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.100295,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.084967,
        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "activity_lines": [
          311.104521,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 320.801636,
        "volume": 6661,
        "typical_volume": 18129.2,
        "trend": 324.587487,
        "fair_value": 264.051366,
        "relative_strength": -15.823034,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 16.375406,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 18899.6,
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        "fair_value": 264.603856,
        "relative_strength": -16.844794,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.092586,
        "energy": 16.86073,
        "activity_lines": [
          315.089632,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 6800,
        "typical_volume": 14560.8,
        "trend": 323.231527,
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        "relative_strength": -15.987562,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "direction": -17.276525,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 11847,
        "typical_volume": 15088.3,
        "trend": 323.137891,
        "fair_value": 265.869965,
        "relative_strength": -13.592851,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "direction": -17.030007,
        "energy": 9.849487,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 17221,
        "typical_volume": 15585.1,
        "trend": 322.881062,
        "fair_value": 266.761573,
        "relative_strength": -10.028643,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 14.373811,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 342.0,
        "volume": 18393,
        "typical_volume": 14625.6,
        "trend": 321.927211,
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        "relative_strength": -8.601804,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.802428,
        "energy": 38.978415,
        "activity_lines": [
          330.055922,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 339.0,
        "volume": 2639,
        "typical_volume": 11350.65,
        "trend": 321.770009,
        "fair_value": 268.624288,
        "relative_strength": -8.33674,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.409263,
        "energy": 46.694518,
        "activity_lines": [
          335.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 334.0,
        "volume": 190,
        "typical_volume": 11039.1,
        "trend": 322.309583,
        "fair_value": 269.534596,
        "relative_strength": -9.05044,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 30.465952,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 11490,
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        "trend": 322.518428,
        "fair_value": 270.534449,
        "relative_strength": -7.465952,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 37.35724,
        "energy": 51.988653,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 319.0,
        "volume": 11054,
        "typical_volume": 9520.9,
        "trend": 321.462095,
        "fair_value": 271.437418,
        "relative_strength": -13.224118,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.022854,
        "energy": 28.756733,
        "activity_lines": [
          333.133333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 305.0,
        "volume": 120246,
        "typical_volume": 14931.75,
        "trend": 320.337607,
        "fair_value": 272.18086,
        "relative_strength": -18.820389,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 14.156711,
        "energy": 10.575661,
        "activity_lines": [
          322.866667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 306.0,
        "volume": 84653,
        "typical_volume": 18681.5,
        "trend": 319.578545,
        "fair_value": 272.908509,
        "relative_strength": -16.206881,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.543039,
        "energy": 19.278799,
        "activity_lines": [
          315.4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 319.0,
        "volume": 204146,
        "typical_volume": 28631.4,
        "trend": 319.518491,
        "fair_value": 273.6846,
        "relative_strength": -11.233809,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -10.872368,
        "energy": 20.513971,
        "activity_lines": [
          314.466667,
          322.418182,
          321.602747,
          319.446441
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 310.0,
        "volume": 19279,
        "typical_volume": 29249.45,
        "trend": 318.959181,
        "fair_value": 274.358591,
        "relative_strength": -14.522707,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.63127,
        "energy": 25.406936,
        "activity_lines": [
          311.533333,
          319.436364,
          320.828488,
          318.832345
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 328.0,
        "volume": 21554,
        "typical_volume": 30110.25,
        "trend": 318.335685,
        "fair_value": 275.195547,
        "relative_strength": -10.205429,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -1.418943,
        "energy": 7.834213,
        "activity_lines": [
          316.933333,
          319.836364,
          321.744045,
          319.415624
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 332.0,
        "volume": 11122,
        "typical_volume": 30522.55,
        "trend": 318.343663,
        "fair_value": 276.105722,
        "relative_strength": -10.288447,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.020476,
        "energy": 16.702568,
        "activity_lines": [
          323.066667,
          321.163636,
          322.949346,
          320.297193
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}