{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f40abd78-c128-47df-89c3-79b5bdcb66f8", "symbol": "SXE", "name": "Southern Cross Electrical Engineering Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.07, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.708, "architecture_energy": 36.902, "architecture_maturity": 67.286, "architecture_confidence": 66.248, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.34, "rotation_up": 38.89, "upward_expansion": 64.2, "deceleration": 68.25, "rotation_down": 26.02, "downward_expansion": 16.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.450667, 4.451091, 4.271031, 3.994511 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.49, "trend_reference": 3.603494, "distance_from_trend": 0.246013, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.877722, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.391195, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 41.893577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.728288, "excess_performance": 0.664583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.246013, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.235413, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.391195, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.418936, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318431, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.728288, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.452647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4607802, "relative_activity": 1.074497, "balance": 1.452647, "dry_up": 1.776597, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091999, "annualized_volatility": 0.50344, "from_high_reference": -0.072314, "from_low_reference": 1.541381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.603494, "fair_value_reference": 1.877722, "structural_low": 2.607862, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.036265, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.016651, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.324278, "worst_return": -0.083334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.187878, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.150733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.494058, "worst_return": -0.016393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.265483, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.285374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.10518, "worst_return": -0.030182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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"start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155224, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055555, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177664, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094851, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175758, "active": false }, { 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.988053, "energy": 67.911595, "activity_lines": [ 4.483333, 4.348364, 4.031745, 3.734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.35, "volume": 9167104, "typical_volume": 3969537.15, "trend": 3.400418, "fair_value": 1.803128, "relative_strength": 52.395217, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.564038, "energy": 55.6845, "activity_lines": [ 4.454, 4.366727, 4.093398, 3.799309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.61, "volume": 7554217, "typical_volume": 3995897.2, "trend": 3.470791, "fair_value": 1.828782, "relative_strength": 58.877028, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.500748, "energy": 52.961531, "activity_lines": [ 4.489333, 4.427636, 4.173216, 3.877346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.33, "volume": 9145449, "typical_volume": 4228283.0, "trend": 3.533154, "fair_value": 1.852697, "relative_strength": 43.454567, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.453627, "energy": 41.536984, "activity_lines": [ 4.430667, 4.429636, 4.218014, 3.932779 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.49, "volume": 4607802, "typical_volume": 4288335.05, "trend": 3.603494, "fair_value": 1.877722, "relative_strength": 41.893577, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.708284, "energy": 36.902361, "activity_lines": [ 4.450667, 4.451091, 4.271031, 3.994511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }