{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f40d3032-2c5b-4dfc-8d8c-8b81351d616d", "symbol": "BYLD", "name": "ISHARES TRUST YIELD OPTIMIZED BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.967, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.85, "architecture_energy": 48.124, "architecture_maturity": 2.131, "architecture_confidence": 69.317, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.6, "rotation_up": 7.24, "upward_expansion": 15.51, "deceleration": 46.15, "rotation_down": 65.74, "downward_expansion": 76.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.278131, 22.345184, 22.380093, 22.37792 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.35, "trend_reference": 22.38654, "distance_from_trend": -0.001632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.856837, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.630903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004885, "excess_performance": -0.13051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002359, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004885, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.712463, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 513497, "relative_activity": 0.876549, "balance": 2.712463, "dry_up": 0.533051, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007671, "annualized_volatility": 0.043876, "from_high_reference": -0.013516, "from_low_reference": 0.034721 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.38654, "fair_value_reference": 20.856837, "structural_low": 21.973009, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013749, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.006939, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.034476, "worst_return": -0.025465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.025544, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006004, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.072561, "worst_return": -0.061058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016931, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026898, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.067186, "worst_return": -0.085042, "sufficient": false 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3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.145631, "energy": 23.603564, "activity_lines": [ 22.458832, 22.448983, 22.417263, 22.407987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.358668, "volume": 301182, "typical_volume": 615849.7, "trend": 22.394783, "fair_value": 20.790234, "relative_strength": -7.804334, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.817772, "energy": 10.906427, "activity_lines": [ 22.416382, 22.436032, 22.414652, 22.405912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.19939, "volume": 239463, "typical_volume": 597593.45, "trend": 22.390472, "fair_value": 20.811672, "relative_strength": -7.702044, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.992169, "energy": 23.598833, "activity_lines": [ 22.331008, 22.396027, 22.398148, 22.393306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.189435, "volume": 194939, "typical_volume": 591055.9, "trend": 22.38746, "fair_value": 20.833574, "relative_strength": -8.451655, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.888965, "energy": 49.541233, "activity_lines": [ 22.265092, 22.354869, 22.381544, 22.380336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.35, "volume": 513497, "typical_volume": 585816.5, "trend": 22.38654, "fair_value": 20.856837, "relative_strength": -10.630903, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.85033, "energy": 48.124142, "activity_lines": [ 22.278131, 22.345184, 22.380093, 22.37792 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }