{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4133469-3657-4a7e-8cc4-43e8804a02e8", "symbol": "KGC", "name": "Kinross Gold Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.007, "architecture_energy": 36.284, "architecture_maturity": 42.002, "architecture_confidence": 65.403, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.26, "rotation_up": 23.56, "upward_expansion": 15.94, "deceleration": 64.64, "rotation_down": 46.96, "downward_expansion": 68.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.762, 24.652909, 26.284989, 27.655859 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.64, "trend_reference": 29.540962, "distance_from_trend": -0.06435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.193998, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.819139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.683368, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136412, "excess_performance": -0.262036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02823, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.819139, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.523072, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136412, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519514, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49609335, "relative_activity": 1.220576, "balance": 0.519514, "dry_up": 0.950852, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108911, "annualized_volatility": 0.60445, "from_high_reference": -0.29142, "from_low_reference": 0.506672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.540962, "fair_value_reference": 15.193998, "structural_low": 22.285, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.006115, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011237, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.19697, "worst_return": -0.260486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.079095, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.0878, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.207817, "worst_return": -0.128755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.191492, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.20619, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.427417, "worst_return": -0.342574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.482252, "energy": 69.81056, "activity_lines": [ 24.749333, 25.870492, 27.895883, 29.111893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.57, "volume": 35674711, "typical_volume": 43464383.55, "trend": 30.021508, "fair_value": 14.807825, "relative_strength": -23.487124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.988103, "energy": 75.107769, "activity_lines": [ 23.915333, 25.067645, 27.248843, 28.618365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.85, "volume": 32547341, "typical_volume": 42192537.05, "trend": 29.8291, "fair_value": 14.930692, "relative_strength": -18.941089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.670397, "energy": 65.020871, "activity_lines": [ 23.708667, 24.659273, 26.791912, 28.220203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.1, "volume": 36755059, "typical_volume": 41316084.35, "trend": 29.658236, "fair_value": 15.048195, "relative_strength": -22.517428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.550258, "energy": 61.063141, "activity_lines": [ 23.44, 24.196182, 26.304576, 27.786068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.64, "volume": 49609335, "typical_volume": 40644189.45, "trend": 29.540962, "fair_value": 15.193998, "relative_strength": -10.683368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.007376, "energy": 36.28399, "activity_lines": [ 24.762, 24.652909, 26.284989, 27.655859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }