{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f41469c2-2209-42f1-b73e-a65bcc358f54", "symbol": "CHAU", "name": "DIREXION DAILY CSI 300 CHINA A SHARE BULL 2X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.062, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.13, "architecture_energy": 22.148, "architecture_maturity": 10.4, "architecture_confidence": 63.559, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.89, "rotation_up": 15.38, "upward_expansion": 14.63, "deceleration": 62.07, "rotation_down": 56.23, "downward_expansion": 39.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.987333, 22.432043, 22.825471, 22.59998 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.68, "trend_reference": 22.317258, "distance_from_trend": 0.016254, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.338019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.702564, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039904, "excess_performance": -0.085721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016254, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035045, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.388173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.78277, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1005608, "relative_activity": 1.569591, "balance": 0.78277, "dry_up": 1.490407, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076766, "annualized_volatility": 0.311956, "from_high_reference": -0.126618, "from_low_reference": 0.435248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.317258, "fair_value_reference": 16.338019, "structural_low": 19.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.03001, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.0294, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.133458, "worst_return": -0.103055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.061514, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.080033, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.318744, "worst_return": -0.320716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009701, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020526, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.244506, "worst_return": -0.235676, 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"typical_volume": 607829.5, "trend": 22.300557, "fair_value": 16.278957, "relative_strength": -3.783661, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.290143, "energy": 21.140113, "activity_lines": [ 22.120667, 22.762155, 22.912023, 22.62534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.53, "volume": 916199, "typical_volume": 628289.05, "trend": 22.302515, "fair_value": 16.298607, "relative_strength": -6.112195, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.652871, "energy": 26.243571, "activity_lines": [ 21.781333, 22.474911, 22.814077, 22.575627 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.68, "volume": 1005608, "typical_volume": 640681.4, "trend": 22.317258, "fair_value": 16.338019, "relative_strength": -4.702564, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.129977, "energy": 22.147914, "activity_lines": [ 21.987333, 22.432043, 22.825471, 22.59998 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }