{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f41c6aa1-b220-47c4-b55b-f3116dea190c", "symbol": "ATT", "name": "AT&T Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.934, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.267, "architecture_energy": 29.818, "architecture_maturity": 70.493, "architecture_confidence": 72.634, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.99, "rotation_up": 34.95, "upward_expansion": 20.62, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 25.41, "downward_expansion": 59.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.309667, 19.758679, 20.214289, 20.934737 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.620001, "trend_reference": 21.561414, "distance_from_trend": -0.043662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.910249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.459619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.089159, "excess_performance": -0.263406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021285, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036102, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089159, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.169438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8222, "relative_activity": 2.14654, "balance": 2.169438, "dry_up": 2.936155, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055335, "annualized_volatility": 0.304168, "from_high_reference": -0.182153, "from_low_reference": 0.175222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.561414, "fair_value_reference": 18.910249, "structural_low": 17.545622, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.015191, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.012051, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.198861, "worst_return": -0.111421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.072541, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.023234, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.173295, "worst_return": -0.159167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016782, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196603, "worst_return": -0.036936, "sufficient": 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19.691288, 20.971697, 21.451165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.452, "volume": 2310, "typical_volume": 2417.55, "trend": 21.555224, "fair_value": 18.67383, "relative_strength": -32.175559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.854485, "energy": 88.84994, "activity_lines": [ 18.646709, 19.343802, 20.636934, 21.246452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.444, "volume": 4636, "typical_volume": 2574.2, "trend": 21.531625, "fair_value": 18.726168, "relative_strength": -26.536448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.820248, "energy": 78.310615, "activity_lines": [ 18.821008, 19.248008, 20.419852, 21.110244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.975, "volume": 19836, "typical_volume": 3328.65, "trend": 21.554998, "fair_value": 18.788292, "relative_strength": -21.213701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.456844, "energy": 47.463201, "activity_lines": [ 19.535722, 19.46705, 20.366897, 21.074332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.32, "volume": 12292, "typical_volume": 3696.3, "trend": 21.548738, "fair_value": 18.849006, "relative_strength": -22.963086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.70779, "energy": 27.924606, "activity_lines": [ 19.900941, 19.572273, 20.267623, 20.994655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.620001, "volume": 8222, "typical_volume": 3830.35, "trend": 21.561414, "fair_value": 18.910249, "relative_strength": -23.459619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.266669, "energy": 29.818451, "activity_lines": [ 20.309667, 19.758679, 20.214289, 20.934737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }