{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f41ca73b-a9b2-4de6-bd64-04bb3242ec54", "symbol": "CEN", "name": "Capital Engineering Network Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.359, "architecture_energy": 19.435, "architecture_maturity": 18.642, "architecture_confidence": 67.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.65, "rotation_up": 23.06, "upward_expansion": 21.17, "deceleration": 41.13, "rotation_down": 31.35, "downward_expansion": 48.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.608, 0.607455, 0.610952, 0.616903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.646333, "distance_from_trend": -0.071686, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.671795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.641104, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.548557, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.230769, "excess_performance": -0.423094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141275, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.641104, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014537, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.385486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.410256, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97300, "relative_activity": 0.027686, "balance": 0.410256, "dry_up": 0.156554, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051282, "annualized_volatility": 0.480564, "from_high_reference": -0.605263, "from_low_reference": 0.304348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.646333, "fair_value_reference": 1.671795, "structural_low": 0.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.044776, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.050258, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.068027, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.12963, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.138895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.020408, "worst_return": -0.188525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071051, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.099732, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.038462, "worst_return": -0.201493, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.19168, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182321, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.12963, "worst_return": -0.253731, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-04-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043165, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037313, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.144231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048544, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.69, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016393, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.74, "volume": 189000, "typical_volume": 1785435.0, "trend": 2.944667, "fair_value": 2.381987, "relative_strength": -1.931697, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.233034, "energy": 28.261357, "activity_lines": [ 0.606, 0.606545, 0.609333, 0.632774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.62, "volume": 1310300, "typical_volume": 4044665.0, "trend": 0.676333, "fair_value": 1.714103, "relative_strength": -41.238505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.040998, "energy": 19.585727, "activity_lines": [ 0.612, 0.608182, 0.610286, 0.628452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.61, "volume": 744600, "typical_volume": 4045600.0, "trend": 0.666333, "fair_value": 1.700192, "relative_strength": -41.124351, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.651808, "energy": 17.160141, "activity_lines": [ 0.612667, 0.608364, 0.610857, 0.624172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.61, "volume": 48600, "typical_volume": 3536935.0, "trend": 0.656333, "fair_value": 1.686026, "relative_strength": -39.191588, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.951784, "energy": 15.613159, "activity_lines": [ 0.612, 0.608727, 0.611524, 0.620538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 97300, "typical_volume": 3514435.0, "trend": 0.646333, "fair_value": 1.671795, "relative_strength": -38.548557, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.359173, "energy": 19.434708, "activity_lines": [ 0.608, 0.607455, 0.610952, 0.616903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }