{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f43f2876-c1d9-464f-b9c0-5c0b06a2997b", "symbol": "XTMT", "name": "XTRACKERS XTRACKERS MSCI TAIWAN", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.127, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.333, "architecture_energy": 28.127, "architecture_maturity": 73.148, "architecture_confidence": 94.148, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.78, "rotation_up": 26.85, "upward_expansion": 59.85, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 31.18, "downward_expansion": 21.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.316466, 18.686572, 18.363889, 17.362004 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.823, "trend_reference": 15.994466, "distance_from_trend": 0.176845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.868136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.586012, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 25.854511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.465027, "excess_performance": 0.413791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.176845, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.586012, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083837, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.258545, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195402, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.465027, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.241514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36674, "relative_activity": 0.588389, "balance": 1.241514, "dry_up": 2.194806, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062112, "annualized_volatility": 0.346758, "from_high_reference": -0.061899, "from_low_reference": 0.913615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.994466, "fair_value_reference": 11.868136, "structural_low": 12.66698, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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16.671799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.736, "volume": 568, "typical_volume": 36352.1, "trend": 15.348625, "fair_value": 11.639736, "relative_strength": 24.983147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.869259, "energy": 52.191655, "activity_lines": [ 18.976966, 19.035395, 17.980661, 16.839743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.198999, "volume": 5681, "typical_volume": 35584.95, "trend": 15.574022, "fair_value": 11.716904, "relative_strength": 25.56191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.365068, "energy": 43.140178, "activity_lines": [ 18.627199, 18.9189, 18.126598, 17.023638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.768, "volume": 504282, "typical_volume": 60698.2, "trend": 15.772303, "fair_value": 11.787265, "relative_strength": 20.172112, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.811303, "energy": 26.419778, "activity_lines": [ 18.258166, 18.703981, 18.206423, 17.165185 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.823, "volume": 36674, "typical_volume": 62329.55, "trend": 15.994466, "fair_value": 11.868136, "relative_strength": 25.854511, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.333369, "energy": 28.127202, "activity_lines": [ 18.316466, 18.686572, 18.363889, 17.362004 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }