{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4401cb2-ae19-480a-9b16-f98dc24ebf53", "symbol": "GNRC", "name": "Generac Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 76.618, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.73, "architecture_energy": 47.726, "architecture_maturity": 6.341, "architecture_confidence": 77.596, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.47, "rotation_up": 14.13, "upward_expansion": 22.78, "deceleration": 53.69, "rotation_down": 68.02, "downward_expansion": 50.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 207.955333, 225.850364, 239.454286, 234.776387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 212.22, "trend_reference": 224.395, "distance_from_trend": -0.054257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 157.726026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.033687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156323, "excess_performance": 0.030698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054257, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153117, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345498, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.477598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.42401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6513255, "relative_activity": 1.381985, "balance": 0.544941, "dry_up": 1.309237, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140239, "annualized_volatility": 0.503635, "from_high_reference": -0.284105, "from_low_reference": 0.574332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 224.395, "fair_value_reference": 157.726026, "structural_low": 180.87, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.088261, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.086091, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.066544, "worst_return": -0.245595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039765, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003233, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.486315, "worst_return": -0.23284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.227165, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.091331, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.832817, "worst_return": -0.383795, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 233.94, "volume": 4382879, "typical_volume": 4465405.4, "trend": 215.966, "fair_value": 155.741795, "relative_strength": 7.073573, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.580071, "energy": 23.327151, "activity_lines": [ 255.790667, 261.764364, 251.37, 238.077978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 214.91, "volume": 4930867, "typical_volume": 4442388.15, "trend": 218.498333, "fair_value": 156.188013, "relative_strength": -0.374506, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.08828, "energy": 15.153594, "activity_lines": [ 240.312, 252.667818, 249.139857, 238.009849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 202.01, "volume": 3689447, "typical_volume": 4388435.75, "trend": 220.546667, "fair_value": 156.522051, "relative_strength": -5.953375, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.873063, "energy": 27.164117, "activity_lines": [ 223.696667, 242.216727, 245.730952, 236.946086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 197.11, "volume": 9548000, "typical_volume": 4636610.0, "trend": 222.413667, "fair_value": 157.055128, "relative_strength": -8.922144, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.159085, "energy": 42.021031, "activity_lines": [ 210.590667, 231.996, 241.864952, 235.434043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 212.22, "volume": 6513255, "typical_volume": 4712969.5, "trend": 224.395, "fair_value": 157.726026, "relative_strength": -5.033687, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.729741, "energy": 47.7263, "activity_lines": [ 207.955333, 225.850364, 239.454286, 234.776387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }