{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f449c8ff-0322-4329-8724-282106edc18b", "symbol": "5475", "name": "Glotech Industrial Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.533, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.641, "architecture_energy": 72.019, "architecture_maturity": 26.066, "architecture_confidence": 64.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.05, "rotation_up": 17.2, "upward_expansion": 25.87, "deceleration": 43.2, "rotation_down": 73.13, "downward_expansion": 67.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 140.5, 163.372727, 211.154762, 224.037634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 170.5, "trend_reference": 220.233333, "distance_from_trend": -0.225821, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.034295, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.793511, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.730735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.249084, "excess_performance": -0.192288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204009, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.793511, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.872536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.274475, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.249084, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.179432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85830560, "relative_activity": 4.439869, "balance": 1.179432, "dry_up": 1.804511, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.25829, "annualized_volatility": 1.051307, "from_high_reference": -0.578492, "from_low_reference": 3.98538 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 220.233333, "fair_value_reference": 61.034295, "structural_low": 100.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.098271, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.007353, "worst_return": -0.189189, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.100556, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022059, "worst_return": -0.179054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.157691, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141687, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.139706, "worst_return": -0.175676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.802663, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 1.581526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.632353, "worst_return": -0.027027, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147436, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047445, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135922, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.354839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 11.887828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.43672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.262963, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 13.0, "volume": 1699000, "typical_volume": 4770450.0, "trend": 13.92, "fair_value": 16.236767, "relative_strength": -8.181583, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.73351, "energy": 24.098299, 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-46.240096, "energy": 69.35245, "activity_lines": [ 173.6, 206.090909, 245.033333, 239.826667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.0, "volume": 12176077, "typical_volume": 16204942.65, "trend": 216.44, "fair_value": 59.330769, "relative_strength": -38.670943, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -58.181984, "energy": 80.243957, "activity_lines": [ 146.166667, 184.345455, 230.964286, 233.063226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.5, "volume": 27131981, "typical_volume": 16115070.55, "trend": 217.456667, "fair_value": 60.027564, "relative_strength": -33.847426, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.615014, "energy": 79.686723, "activity_lines": [ 131.666667, 168.254545, 218.62381, 227.067097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 170.5, "volume": 85830560, "typical_volume": 19331777.1, "trend": 220.233333, "fair_value": 61.034295, "relative_strength": -12.730735, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.640725, "energy": 72.018615, "activity_lines": [ 140.5, 163.372727, 211.154762, 224.037634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }