{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f44f9b97-1d1f-4838-aa5b-93a7130db2c1", "symbol": "SHOP", "name": "Shopify Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.651, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.419, "architecture_energy": 50.285, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.155, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.66, "rotation_up": 64.26, "upward_expansion": 56.24, "deceleration": 25.68, "rotation_down": 20.75, "downward_expansion": 19.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 129.157333, 123.591273, 119.059143, 118.822258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 151.57, "trend_reference": 120.533667, "distance_from_trend": 0.257491, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 101.259423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.496848, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.747027, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.3527, "excess_performance": 0.165246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.257491, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.496848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.35544, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02747, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.291455, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.3527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.090856, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103127571, "relative_activity": 2.104614, "balance": 2.090856, "dry_up": 1.174616, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103108, "annualized_volatility": 0.633533, "from_high_reference": -0.168066, "from_low_reference": 0.612447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.533667, "fair_value_reference": 101.259423, "structural_low": 94.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.086129, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.043861, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.442812, "worst_return": -0.186302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.189494, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.071342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.399961, "worst_return": -0.410609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.143547, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.275213, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.861135, "worst_return": -0.760549, "sufficient": true 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.32302, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13344, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.187816, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": 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"relative_strength": -23.017225, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.303028, "energy": 12.593934, "activity_lines": [ 117.804, 114.351273, 115.180952, 117.994516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 123.56, "volume": 34622586, "typical_volume": 45889963.9, "trend": 124.201667, "fair_value": 99.956667, "relative_strength": -18.65408, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.83424, "energy": 13.617369, "activity_lines": [ 120.594, 116.491455, 115.83381, 117.854172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.75, "volume": 40057591, "typical_volume": 44820573.25, "trend": 122.299, "fair_value": 100.2625, "relative_strength": -23.532365, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.786451, "energy": 13.958474, "activity_lines": [ 119.092667, 116.608909, 115.538905, 117.179871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.15, "volume": 52420215, "typical_volume": 45632612.65, "trend": 120.964, "fair_value": 100.642115, "relative_strength": -21.36667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.395208, "energy": 9.945043, "activity_lines": [ 118.398, 117.099636, 115.646143, 116.847677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 151.57, "volume": 103127571, "typical_volume": 49000699.8, "trend": 120.533667, "fair_value": 101.259423, "relative_strength": -2.747027, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.418693, "energy": 50.285223, "activity_lines": [ 129.157333, 123.591273, 119.059143, 118.822258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }