{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f44fc9a2-dc14-43e2-a540-a1bb24738bf1",
    "symbol": "APAM",
    "name": "Aperam S.A.",
    "exchange": "MCE",
    "country": "ES",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^IBEX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 36.569,
    "architecture_energy": 25.955,
    "architecture_maturity": 39.236,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.58,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.9,
        "rotation_up": 37.28,
        "upward_expansion": 58.55,
        "deceleration": 69.78,
        "rotation_down": 21.06,
        "downward_expansion": 13.22
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        46.653334,
        46.364909,
        46.536963,
        44.803955
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 46.240002,
    "trend_reference": 42.564161,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.08636,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 28.487712,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.623156,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 7.577609,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.14171,
    "excess_performance": 0.017279,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08636,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.127371,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.623156,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.178552,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.075776,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.293172,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.14171,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.327933,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11861,
      "relative_activity": 1.333626,
      "balance": 1.327933,
      "dry_up": 1.311222,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.080264,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.53511,
      "from_high_reference": -0.122581,
      "from_low_reference": 0.877896
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 42.564161,
      "fair_value_reference": 28.487712,
      "structural_low": 31.096882,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.038103,
        "positive_rate": 0.583333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019237,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.216926,
        "worst_return": -0.072424,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.012696,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014162,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.26896,
        "worst_return": -0.144971,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.004893,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.065309,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.31124,
        "worst_return": -0.160996,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.020887,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.179768,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.712229,
        "worst_return": -0.388285,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-29",
        "end": "2024-01-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.142814,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.009862,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.002138,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-15",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.100114,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      {
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        "return": 0.063967,
        "active": true
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    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 14347.05,
        "trend": 35.295912,
        "fair_value": 26.431311,
        "relative_strength": 30.743277,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 66.450104,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 14636.25,
        "trend": 35.874187,
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        "relative_strength": 36.894767,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 81.062476,
        "energy": 82.631318,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 46.734398,
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        "typical_volume": 14968.4,
        "trend": 36.416779,
        "fair_value": 26.693213,
        "relative_strength": 34.527507,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.681978,
        "energy": 81.632977,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 15102.4,
        "trend": 37.002337,
        "fair_value": 26.840378,
        "relative_strength": 37.291349,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 79.554276,
        "energy": 87.093965,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 14857.1,
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        "relative_strength": 39.847064,
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        "direction": 82.285791,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 858,
        "typical_volume": 14692.65,
        "trend": 38.493135,
        "fair_value": 27.17262,
        "relative_strength": 38.765374,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.910844,
        "energy": 89.766706,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 14349.45,
        "trend": 39.218698,
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        "relative_strength": 34.880773,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 17.612351,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 66.295778,
        "energy": 67.825522,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 42.5,
        "volume": 2887,
        "typical_volume": 12823.7,
        "trend": 40.08949,
        "fair_value": 27.596612,
        "relative_strength": 5.971471,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.050594,
        "energy": 39.766075,
        "activity_lines": [
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          42.864292
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 45.200001,
        "volume": 1188,
        "typical_volume": 11819.15,
        "trend": 40.521356,
        "fair_value": 27.740231,
        "relative_strength": 9.763696,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.797188,
        "energy": 25.952814,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 43.459999,
        "volume": 6742,
        "typical_volume": 11318.75,
        "trend": 40.844352,
        "fair_value": 27.866903,
        "relative_strength": 7.713783,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.359715,
        "energy": 32.221474,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.738667,
          46.790572,
          45.173351,
          43.383592
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 46.380001,
        "volume": 9324,
        "typical_volume": 10960.45,
        "trend": 41.328595,
        "fair_value": 28.012136,
        "relative_strength": 15.330084,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.93237,
        "energy": 28.362394,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.878667,
          46.554444,
          45.50428,
          43.740731
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 50.099998,
        "volume": 7869,
        "typical_volume": 10289.05,
        "trend": 41.870316,
        "fair_value": 28.185338,
        "relative_strength": 21.412283,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.359221,
        "energy": 27.619809,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.62,
          47.021636,
          46.177231,
          44.306627
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 45.52,
        "volume": 17593,
        "typical_volume": 9442.15,
        "trend": 42.181107,
        "fair_value": 28.334818,
        "relative_strength": 8.611973,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.341305,
        "energy": 24.258265,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.617333,
          46.594909,
          46.352628,
          44.542091
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 46.240002,
        "volume": 11861,
        "typical_volume": 8893.8,
        "trend": 42.564161,
        "fair_value": 28.487712,
        "relative_strength": 7.577609,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.568529,
        "energy": 25.954527,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.653334,
          46.364909,
          46.536963,
          44.803955
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}