{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f450b993-2d6e-43e5-91e9-25d52805475c", "symbol": "ALATI", "name": "ACTIA Group S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.848, "architecture_energy": 30.93, "architecture_maturity": 37.534, "architecture_confidence": 91.937, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.11, "rotation_up": 38.75, "upward_expansion": 65.5, "deceleration": 89.11, "rotation_down": 27.02, "downward_expansion": 12.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.024667, 4.022, 3.987095, 3.857548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.12, "trend_reference": 3.682, "distance_from_trend": 0.118957, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.350168, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.536702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.229851, "excess_performance": 0.176539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118957, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132781, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115367, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.229851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.106813, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22027, "relative_activity": 0.451987, "balance": 1.106813, "dry_up": 0.277647, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063294, "annualized_volatility": 0.386988, "from_high_reference": -0.061503, "from_low_reference": 0.476703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.682, "fair_value_reference": 3.350168, "structural_low": 2.79, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.02805, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.01759, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.106849, "worst_return": -0.081263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01087, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.011518, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.107554, "worst_return": -0.165939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057936, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018784, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.195266, "worst_return": -0.18598, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13801, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119601, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014962, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.963091, "energy": 34.478192, "activity_lines": [ 4.043333, 4.034182, 3.951571, 3.809785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.9, "volume": 11141, "typical_volume": 48241.05, "trend": 3.650667, "fair_value": 3.352102, "relative_strength": 8.410614, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.198824, "energy": 25.382093, "activity_lines": [ 3.988, 4.008182, 3.960714, 3.827269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.12, "volume": 22027, "typical_volume": 48733.7, "trend": 3.682, "fair_value": 3.350168, "relative_strength": 11.536702, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.848045, "energy": 30.929884, "activity_lines": [ 4.024667, 4.022, 3.987095, 3.857548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }