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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.332, "architecture_energy": 51.059, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.393, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.92, "rotation_up": 58.86, "upward_expansion": 80.43, "deceleration": 55.52, "rotation_down": 20.26, "downward_expansion": 7.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.140529, 75.098046, 75.012602, 74.915015 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 75.21, "trend_reference": 74.765792, "distance_from_trend": 0.005941, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.814122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062076, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.793476, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010523, "excess_performance": -0.115102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005941, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00543, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062076, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006516, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000396, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010523, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.707679, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193330, "relative_activity": 0.582468, "balance": 3.707679, "dry_up": 0.895611, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002574, "annualized_volatility": 0.007641, "from_high_reference": -0.000664, "from_low_reference": 0.034127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.765792, "fair_value_reference": 70.814122, "structural_low": 74.1123, 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"direction": 62.623414, "energy": 43.427346, "activity_lines": [ 75.041351, 75.025855, 74.930125, 74.826981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.055855, "volume": 267167, "typical_volume": 344841.5, "trend": 74.693283, "fair_value": 70.686651, "relative_strength": -6.390771, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.78679, "energy": 36.539196, "activity_lines": [ 75.044003, 75.038237, 74.951301, 74.85257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.180725, "volume": 330054, "typical_volume": 342575.7, "trend": 74.729541, "fair_value": 70.750446, "relative_strength": -6.963057, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.330674, "energy": 46.360312, "activity_lines": [ 75.088496, 75.06834, 74.982136, 74.884018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.21, "volume": 193330, "typical_volume": 331915.2, "trend": 74.765792, "fair_value": 70.814122, "relative_strength": -9.793476, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.331512, "energy": 51.058618, "activity_lines": [ 75.140529, 75.098046, 75.012602, 74.915015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }