{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f45a3430-e7bc-477e-a989-8aca2e0bf5d1", "symbol": "BDI", "name": "Black Diamond Group Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.094, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.943, "architecture_energy": 18.409, "architecture_maturity": 68.764, "architecture_confidence": 87.587, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.92, "rotation_up": 31.94, "upward_expansion": 58.81, "deceleration": 84.58, "rotation_down": 28.32, "downward_expansion": 20.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.426, 18.65413, 18.436521, 17.994168 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.07, "trend_reference": 17.474944, "distance_from_trend": 0.034052, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.987211, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.644639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.027264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105669, "excess_performance": -0.014753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034052, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.644639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020273, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105669, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.448307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1166000, "relative_activity": 1.333318, "balance": 1.448307, "dry_up": 1.791232, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070938, "annualized_volatility": 0.322191, "from_high_reference": -0.117676, "from_low_reference": 0.616998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.474944, "fair_value_reference": 10.987211, "structural_low": 15.026832, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.020023, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.014969, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.24805, "worst_return": -0.145367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.074146, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.03704, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.402996, "worst_return": -0.223586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.187026, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.166017, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.5172, "worst_return": -0.118988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 20.040001, "volume": 1796200, "typical_volume": 779175.0, "trend": 17.179712, "fair_value": 10.749705, "relative_strength": 17.875908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.414457, "energy": 51.256603, "activity_lines": [ 19.233659, 19.023712, 18.311866, 17.822906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.98, "volume": 1466900, "typical_volume": 805420.0, "trend": 17.317323, "fair_value": 10.833115, "relative_strength": 10.870328, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.521196, "energy": 43.347074, "activity_lines": [ 19.215667, 19.070479, 18.439988, 17.939053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.51, "volume": 1836700, "typical_volume": 839295.0, "trend": 17.408404, "fair_value": 10.908399, "relative_strength": 2.420093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.787209, "energy": 23.735095, "activity_lines": [ 18.689334, 18.809058, 18.415553, 17.951484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.07, "volume": 1166000, "typical_volume": 874510.0, "trend": 17.474944, "fair_value": 10.987211, "relative_strength": 2.027264, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.942666, "energy": 18.40892, "activity_lines": [ 18.426, 18.65413, 18.436521, 17.994168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }