{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f45d7516-19ee-4e12-96a0-3c83088158a7", "symbol": "GSY", "name": "goeasy Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.497, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 4.021, "architecture_energy": 24.104, "architecture_maturity": 48.91, "architecture_confidence": 40.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.04, "rotation_up": 41.43, "upward_expansion": 36.82, "deceleration": 47.33, "rotation_down": 14.15, "downward_expansion": 45.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.081333, 47.340363, 42.964238, 47.012602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.900002, "trend_reference": 61.330666, "distance_from_trend": -0.186378, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 137.389795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.6368, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -58.281698, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.620128, "excess_performance": -0.740549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186378, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.311079, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.6368, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131977, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.582817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201903, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.620128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.283122, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 566100, "relative_activity": 0.615426, "balance": 1.283122, "dry_up": 0.446649, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100447, "annualized_volatility": 1.641101, "from_high_reference": -0.764969, "from_low_reference": 0.807971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.330666, "fair_value_reference": 137.389795, "structural_low": 27.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002115, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004124, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.11006, "worst_return": -0.088729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021756, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.354945, "worst_return": -0.223216, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.140687, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182818, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40343, "worst_return": -0.786431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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1453205.0, "trend": 72.469545, "fair_value": 139.178217, "relative_strength": -63.721242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.799994, "energy": 31.943829, "activity_lines": [ 44.668666, 42.087999, 39.655381, 51.927046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.959999, "volume": 394300, "typical_volume": 1422380.0, "trend": 69.827, "fair_value": 138.770361, "relative_strength": -59.836373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.887754, "energy": 30.622576, "activity_lines": [ 47.208666, 44.164908, 40.302, 50.539333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.02, "volume": 308100, "typical_volume": 1397390.0, "trend": 67.086, "fair_value": 138.34232, "relative_strength": -60.381031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.31107, "energy": 30.62628, "activity_lines": [ 48.387999, 45.562363, 41.032523, 49.196946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.619999, "volume": 374900, "typical_volume": 1023485.0, "trend": 64.291333, "fair_value": 137.864724, "relative_strength": -60.212709, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.356575, "energy": 25.508331, "activity_lines": [ 48.605999, 46.359272, 41.918142, 47.941075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.900002, "volume": 566100, "typical_volume": 919850.0, "trend": 61.330666, "fair_value": 137.389795, "relative_strength": -58.281698, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.021102, "energy": 24.103675, "activity_lines": [ 49.081333, 47.340363, 42.964238, 47.012602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }