{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f45ef568-437e-41c1-93e3-4cf75d3d5aae", "symbol": "HSMV", "name": "FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III HORIZON MANAGED VOLATILITY SM OR MID ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.726, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.953, "architecture_energy": 80.99, "architecture_maturity": 16.116, "architecture_confidence": 61.634, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.73, "rotation_up": 81.34, "upward_expansion": 95.98, "deceleration": 40.17, "rotation_down": 10.25, "downward_expansion": 17.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.244453, 38.871943, 38.244944, 37.906796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 39.5001, "trend_reference": 37.567388, "distance_from_trend": 0.051447, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.277028, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152378, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.285934, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042847, "excess_performance": -0.082778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051447, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025703, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037458, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035718, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042847, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495716, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53117, "relative_activity": 2.559152, "balance": 0.495716, "dry_up": 2.633337, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018878, "annualized_volatility": 0.11834, "from_high_reference": -0.008106, "from_low_reference": 0.142058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.567388, "fair_value_reference": 34.277028, "structural_low": 35.311866, 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11588.4, "trend": 37.117713, "fair_value": 34.04413, "relative_strength": -5.106318, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.259111, "energy": 73.930176, "activity_lines": [ 38.302608, 37.867443, 37.540305, 37.394327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.2076, "volume": 4965, "typical_volume": 11238.4, "trend": 37.231537, "fair_value": 34.099914, "relative_strength": -1.587498, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.130365, "energy": 84.545668, "activity_lines": [ 38.661966, 38.163831, 37.72171, 37.529158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.2595, "volume": 7339, "typical_volume": 11254.2, "trend": 37.343745, "fair_value": 34.15755, "relative_strength": -0.767211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.703055, "energy": 84.840807, "activity_lines": [ 38.946587, 38.436844, 37.903039, 37.659994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.13, "volume": 153206, "typical_volume": 18320.7, "trend": 37.460936, "fair_value": 34.216084, "relative_strength": -2.026649, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.695729, "energy": 79.163911, "activity_lines": [ 39.05298, 38.638079, 38.062677, 37.775237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.5001, "volume": 53117, "typical_volume": 20755.7, "trend": 37.567388, "fair_value": 34.277028, "relative_strength": -4.285934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.953199, "energy": 80.99049, "activity_lines": [ 39.244453, 38.871943, 38.244944, 37.906796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }