{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f460adb8-94e0-42e1-be24-40981cc8cfe1", "symbol": "600628", "name": "Shanghai New World Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.413, "architecture_energy": 45.452, "architecture_maturity": 93.746, "architecture_confidence": 91.522, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.52, "rotation_up": 27.75, "upward_expansion": 20.35, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 38.87, "downward_expansion": 68.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.982667, 5.939636, 6.183381, 6.521656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.06, "trend_reference": 7.000333, "distance_from_trend": -0.134327, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.071434, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.437007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237736, "excess_performance": -0.194532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134327, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.143031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16437, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237736, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493632, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33375699, "relative_activity": 0.958601, "balance": 0.493632, "dry_up": 1.02761, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053186, "annualized_volatility": 0.395868, "from_high_reference": -0.379734, "from_low_reference": 0.072566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.000333, "fair_value_reference": 7.071434, "structural_low": 5.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.014715, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.004669, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.20439, "worst_return": -0.123249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.034991, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.033825, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.206597, "worst_return": -0.151261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.07345, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.046174, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.199454, "worst_return": -0.119718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.990727, 6.385381, 6.752043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.73, "volume": 34625616, "typical_volume": 54066589.2, "trend": 7.139, "fair_value": 7.088145, "relative_strength": -19.319131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.999205, "energy": 67.187533, "activity_lines": [ 5.84, 5.918, 6.284762, 6.653871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.09, "volume": 30831673, "typical_volume": 41711970.35, "trend": 7.060333, "fair_value": 7.080866, "relative_strength": -14.17644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.602989, "energy": 54.048155, "activity_lines": [ 5.93, 5.928, 6.228429, 6.586194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.06, "volume": 33375699, "typical_volume": 34817097.1, "trend": 7.000333, "fair_value": 7.071434, "relative_strength": -16.437007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.412955, "energy": 45.451506, "activity_lines": [ 5.982667, 5.939636, 6.183381, 6.521656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }