{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f463c855-cee0-4b2f-a315-804ce0696e47", "symbol": "EMVC", "name": "EMV Capital plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 65.799, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.439, "architecture_energy": 36.87, "architecture_maturity": 7.966, "architecture_confidence": 62.878, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.66, "rotation_up": 64.15, "upward_expansion": 52.92, "deceleration": 17.37, "rotation_down": 17.27, "downward_expansion": 20.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.534, 0.527, 0.509976, 0.512161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.535, "trend_reference": 0.522167, "distance_from_trend": 0.024577, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.542795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014361, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.317667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.044643, "excess_performance": -0.095878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024577, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116232, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044643, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.435266, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60767, "relative_activity": 0.690256, "balance": 1.435266, "dry_up": 1.334487, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055298, "annualized_volatility": 0.28378, "from_high_reference": -0.137097, "from_low_reference": 0.3375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.522167, "fair_value_reference": 0.542795, "structural_low": 0.44, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.115139, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.132762, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.170543, "worst_return": -0.26087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010417, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.043984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124031, "worst_return": -0.358696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.062016, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.260417, "worst_return": -0.298913, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.53, "volume": 143727, "typical_volume": 85055.3, "trend": 0.529333, "fair_value": 0.54475, "relative_strength": -1.634186, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.981496, "energy": 20.474186, "activity_lines": [ 0.518667, 0.506091, 0.49869, 0.510441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.53, "volume": 267065, "typical_volume": 90622.15, "trend": 0.527833, "fair_value": 0.544558, "relative_strength": -2.426607, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.10372, "energy": 25.315175, "activity_lines": [ 0.524333, 0.512545, 0.500857, 0.510484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.535, "volume": 109101, "typical_volume": 89684.2, "trend": 0.526667, "fair_value": 0.544013, "relative_strength": -2.593515, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.001301, "energy": 40.90135, "activity_lines": [ 0.528667, 0.518455, 0.503738, 0.510946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.535, "volume": 32996, "typical_volume": 86203.35, "trend": 0.5245, "fair_value": 0.543404, "relative_strength": -3.32049, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.668057, "energy": 45.727591, "activity_lines": [ 0.532, 0.523364, 0.50681, 0.511484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.535, "volume": 60767, "typical_volume": 88035.5, "trend": 0.522167, "fair_value": 0.542795, "relative_strength": -3.317667, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.439027, "energy": 36.870458, "activity_lines": [ 0.534, 0.527, 0.509976, 0.512161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }