{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4698271-6df9-479c-b688-ec532228f75a", "symbol": "TMC", "name": "T.M.C. Industrial Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.325, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.379, "architecture_energy": 12.205, "architecture_maturity": 11.46, "architecture_confidence": 58.795, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.89, "rotation_up": 33.41, "upward_expansion": 27.35, "deceleration": 34.19, "rotation_down": 25.03, "downward_expansion": 47.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.696667, 0.693636, 0.695524, 0.69757 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.7, "trend_reference": 0.701333, "distance_from_trend": -0.001901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.125962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378309, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.228925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014085, "excess_performance": -0.20641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011743, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378309, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063425, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000265, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.584125, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263300, "relative_activity": 0.788205, "balance": 1.584125, "dry_up": 0.692561, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036264, "annualized_volatility": 0.118351, "from_high_reference": -0.230769, "from_low_reference": 0.147541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.701333, "fair_value_reference": 1.125962, "structural_low": 0.63, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.025001, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.020508, "regime_survival": 0.565217, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.124352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.025862, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.054023, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.367347, "worst_return": -0.377049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.065789, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.122992, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 1.790698, "worst_return": -0.440945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.052386, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002096, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.546203, "worst_return": -0.462185, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.123077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110236, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.345133, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120482, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", 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"direction": -49.514631, "energy": 39.776508, "activity_lines": [ 0.687333, 0.690909, 0.695333, 0.698989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7, "volume": 506500, "typical_volume": 430190.0, "trend": 0.703333, "fair_value": 1.153205, "relative_strength": -18.905373, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.27417, "energy": 21.901341, "activity_lines": [ 0.691333, 0.691818, 0.695571, 0.698753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7, "volume": 146300, "typical_volume": 368130.0, "trend": 0.703, "fair_value": 1.143846, "relative_strength": -18.593939, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.200201, "energy": 12.942066, "activity_lines": [ 0.695333, 0.692909, 0.695905, 0.698538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.69, "volume": 9300, "typical_volume": 325275.0, "trend": 0.702, "fair_value": 1.134808, "relative_strength": -18.376146, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.75133, "energy": 14.359759, "activity_lines": [ 0.694667, 0.692182, 0.695238, 0.697699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7, "volume": 263300, "typical_volume": 334050.0, "trend": 0.701333, "fair_value": 1.125962, "relative_strength": -16.228925, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.378617, "energy": 12.205227, "activity_lines": [ 0.696667, 0.693636, 0.695524, 0.69757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }