{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f46ae9ab-8465-4dce-8634-2c791bbd6fca", "symbol": "MKLC34", "name": "Markel Group Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.924, "architecture_energy": 22.518, "architecture_maturity": 9.283, "architecture_confidence": 40.44, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.31, "rotation_up": 48.55, "upward_expansion": 42.41, "deceleration": 26.87, "rotation_down": 18.39, "downward_expansion": 46.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 502.263999, 499.190909, 487.870572, 492.428989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 484.320007, "trend_reference": 504.776334, "distance_from_trend": -0.040526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 467.213012, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036615, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.22721, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.123403, "excess_performance": -0.066354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036615, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067007, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193245, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.442623, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103, "relative_activity": 0.593831, "balance": 6.442623, "dry_up": 0.265206, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030906, "annualized_volatility": 0.253263, "from_high_reference": -0.201846, "from_low_reference": 0.110826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 504.776334, "fair_value_reference": 467.213012, "structural_low": 436.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000612, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026054, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.062423, "worst_return": -0.058156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.068207, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135823, "worst_return": -0.066091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015015, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.071267, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.145105, "worst_return": -0.16, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017404, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040842, 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"volume": 45, "typical_volume": 173.25, "trend": 514.952334, "fair_value": 464.028012, "relative_strength": -9.224279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.880677, "energy": 36.755426, "activity_lines": [ 500.843329, 490.060908, 482.978429, 494.083635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 504.899994, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 173.4, "trend": 511.615667, "fair_value": 465.10032, "relative_strength": -9.559762, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.458433, "energy": 35.938703, "activity_lines": [ 503.754661, 494.165452, 484.565333, 493.435096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 520.5, "volume": 33, "typical_volume": 175.05, "trend": 508.799, "fair_value": 466.272627, "relative_strength": -8.195012, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.626051, "energy": 73.045453, "activity_lines": [ 509.939329, 500.471816, 487.864619, 494.008279 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 484.320007, "volume": 103, "typical_volume": 173.45, "trend": 504.776334, "fair_value": 467.213012, "relative_strength": -11.22721, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.923751, "energy": 22.518287, "activity_lines": [ 502.263999, 499.190909, 487.870572, 492.428989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }