{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f46beec2-c280-4f1a-8b5c-a9f1af72b307", "symbol": "TLTP", "name": "AMPLIFY TLT U.S. TREASURY 12% OPTION INCOME ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.059, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.038, "architecture_energy": 74.672, "architecture_maturity": 26.687, "architecture_confidence": 85.778, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.18, "rotation_up": 9.58, "upward_expansion": 17.05, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 78.19, "downward_expansion": 95.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.127687, 20.331007, 20.496094, 20.625197 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 20.1002, "trend_reference": 20.798913, "distance_from_trend": -0.033594, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.532031, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021032, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.113117, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04883, "excess_performance": -0.174455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033594, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034078, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03426, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04883, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.382962, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149580, "relative_activity": 1.179392, "balance": 0.382962, "dry_up": 1.371656, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018063, "annualized_volatility": 0.083566, "from_high_reference": -0.074809, "from_low_reference": 0.012605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.798913, "fair_value_reference": 20.532031, "structural_low": 19.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.001838, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001542, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.022935, "worst_return": -0.026611, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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20.85673, "fair_value": 20.543172, "relative_strength": -10.621422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.672798, "energy": 68.117326, "activity_lines": [ 20.362319, 20.527185, 20.619749, 20.7306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.95, "volume": 357151, "typical_volume": 122452.15, "trend": 20.827213, "fair_value": 20.536725, "relative_strength": -12.108839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.725659, "energy": 77.680565, "activity_lines": [ 20.188582, 20.410517, 20.548783, 20.672101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.1002, "volume": 149580, "typical_volume": 126828.05, "trend": 20.798913, "fair_value": 20.532031, "relative_strength": -14.113117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.037762, "energy": 74.672168, "activity_lines": [ 20.127687, 20.331007, 20.496094, 20.625197 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }