{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4719277-afc5-4d8b-96aa-13c608b43b59", "symbol": "WBC", "name": "Westpac Banking Corporation", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 80.568, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.902, "architecture_energy": 23.313, "architecture_maturity": 19.849, "architecture_confidence": 62.476, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.29, "rotation_up": 44.48, "upward_expansion": 29.63, "deceleration": 46.07, "rotation_down": 14.06, "downward_expansion": 46.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.480666, 36.750181, 36.633416, 37.2752 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.93, "trend_reference": 37.997168, "distance_from_trend": -0.001768, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.918872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267762, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.451507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018838, "excess_performance": -0.082543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001768, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049336, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044515, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018838, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.053404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21781456, "relative_activity": 1.162041, "balance": 2.053404, "dry_up": 1.044925, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030725, "annualized_volatility": 0.205634, "from_high_reference": -0.106943, "from_low_reference": 0.170054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.997168, "fair_value_reference": 29.918872, "structural_low": 34.52, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002766, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.005345, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.162306, "worst_return": -0.082615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053347, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030659, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.150436, "worst_return": -0.13275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067624, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.02698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186512, "worst_return": 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"fair_value": 29.675541, "relative_strength": -0.790289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.879022, "energy": 27.030608, "activity_lines": [ 36.538667, 36.026545, 36.523835, 37.285101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.869999, "volume": 22636199, "typical_volume": 19400584.7, "trend": 37.971441, "fair_value": 29.797482, "relative_strength": -1.369274, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.070606, "energy": 22.803245, "activity_lines": [ 37.090666, 36.394909, 36.57025, 37.277874 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.93, "volume": 21781456, "typical_volume": 18744131.0, "trend": 37.997168, "fair_value": 29.918872, "relative_strength": -4.451507, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.901647, "energy": 23.313367, "activity_lines": [ 37.480666, 36.750181, 36.633416, 37.2752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }