{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f472467a-d04b-40a4-97eb-3967135ae988", "symbol": "C2OI34", "name": "Coinbase Global, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.628, "architecture_energy": 45.949, "architecture_maturity": 83.162, "architecture_confidence": 92.17, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.73, "rotation_up": 18.43, "upward_expansion": 6.89, "deceleration": 45.63, "rotation_down": 59.46, "downward_expansion": 82.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.022001, 31.743455, 33.544953, 34.765376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.620001, "trend_reference": 36.65, "distance_from_trend": -0.164529, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.7425, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.344922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.130128, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.099676, "excess_performance": -0.042628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.164529, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.344922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204293, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.411301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03693, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.099676, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.912983, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 781072, "relative_activity": 1.369659, "balance": 0.912983, "dry_up": 0.951248, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142391, "annualized_volatility": 0.638924, "from_high_reference": -0.650257, "from_low_reference": 0.068761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.65, "fair_value_reference": 46.7425, "structural_low": 28.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.04316, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.045194, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.507081, "worst_return": -0.342675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.254905, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.307449, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.317516, "worst_return": -0.278757, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.106033, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.096267, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.766211, "worst_return": -0.439724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.150002, "volume": 285757, "typical_volume": 604793.8, "trend": 38.094, "fair_value": 46.565128, "relative_strength": -41.269498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.92154, "energy": 34.733198, "activity_lines": [ 32.451334, 32.846364, 34.574, 35.741376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.7, "volume": 714239, "typical_volume": 584294.15, "trend": 37.354, "fair_value": 46.647179, "relative_strength": -45.756623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.209984, "energy": 42.207356, "activity_lines": [ 31.552667, 32.144182, 33.986952, 35.199828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.620001, "volume": 781072, "typical_volume": 570267.45, "trend": 36.65, "fair_value": 46.7425, "relative_strength": -41.130128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.62793, "energy": 45.948627, "activity_lines": [ 31.022001, 31.743455, 33.544953, 34.765376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }