{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f473ca01-f292-4799-8674-7e176d4e13db", "symbol": "EJAP", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Japan Min TE UCITS ETF Cap", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.02, "architecture_energy": 36.137, "architecture_maturity": 58.552, "architecture_confidence": 86.585, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.11, "rotation_up": 39.94, "upward_expansion": 66.27, "deceleration": 85.46, "rotation_down": 26.84, "downward_expansion": 16.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.295, 20.3152, 19.982943, 19.598899 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.83, "trend_reference": 19.147533, "distance_from_trend": 0.087869, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.724436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32469, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.250255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122306, "excess_performance": 0.057666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087869, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058358, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05169, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062503, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122306, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.551125, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 195753, "relative_activity": 1.287206, "balance": 3.551125, "dry_up": 1.107172, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032527, "annualized_volatility": 0.197351, "from_high_reference": -0.003111, "from_low_reference": 0.312705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.147533, "fair_value_reference": 15.724436, "structural_low": 17.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017647, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.003986, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084721, "worst_return": -0.043971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013413, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.004888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.165235, "worst_return": -0.068815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017634, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.030468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115411, "worst_return": -0.078993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001331, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077708, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013663, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003414, "active": false }, { 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.004799, "energy": 85.76587, "activity_lines": [ 20.558267, 20.265418, 19.63599, 19.277531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.677999, "volume": 163702, "typical_volume": 162633.35, "trend": 18.852733, "fair_value": 15.581628, "relative_strength": 7.560352, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.151662, "energy": 51.836234, "activity_lines": [ 20.294, 20.2068, 19.686, 19.336499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.129999, "volume": 173377, "typical_volume": 159908.0, "trend": 18.955, "fair_value": 15.626244, "relative_strength": 8.389096, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.13284, "energy": 41.135007, "activity_lines": [ 20.1948, 20.222509, 19.777285, 19.418903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.966, "volume": 140665, "typical_volume": 156235.25, "trend": 19.051066, "fair_value": 15.672397, "relative_strength": 4.938709, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.64876, "energy": 29.722763, "activity_lines": [ 20.088266, 20.194182, 19.843685, 19.484129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.83, "volume": 195753, "typical_volume": 152075.95, "trend": 19.147533, "fair_value": 15.724436, "relative_strength": 6.250255, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.019522, "energy": 36.136789, "activity_lines": [ 20.295, 20.3152, 19.982943, 19.598899 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }