{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f476fa7e-a298-4bdb-be2c-84d4231193e5", "symbol": "SKF-B", "name": "AB SKF (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.112, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.442, "architecture_energy": 43.492, "architecture_maturity": 22.227, "architecture_confidence": 82.765, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.37, "rotation_up": 56.62, "upward_expansion": 81.23, "deceleration": 56.15, "rotation_down": 21.43, "downward_expansion": 5.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 257.686661, 255.639996, 248.89215, 244.38932 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 261.799988, "trend_reference": 241.304612, "distance_from_trend": 0.084936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 209.999753, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246668, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.100415, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071392, "excess_performance": 0.009898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014869, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246668, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078256, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038258, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071392, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.067745, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4915932, "relative_activity": 1.006055, "balance": 2.067745, "dry_up": 1.104329, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049833, "annualized_volatility": 0.306971, "from_high_reference": -0.030729, "from_low_reference": 0.300005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 241.304612, "fair_value_reference": 209.999753, "structural_low": 201.383835, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.008513, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.019854, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.103637, "worst_return": -0.189231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.035642, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.039138, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.184735, "worst_return": -0.117025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04926, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054592, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.142509, "worst_return": 0.029598, 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252.029092, 244.88882, 241.89845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 257.799988, "volume": 3914780, "typical_volume": 4999106.95, "trend": 240.729664, "fair_value": 209.400851, "relative_strength": -2.881351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.816017, "energy": 45.443272, "activity_lines": [ 256.286664, 253.636362, 246.791956, 243.029944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 261.799988, "volume": 4915932, "typical_volume": 4886343.85, "trend": 241.304612, "fair_value": 209.999753, "relative_strength": -3.100415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.441646, "energy": 43.492463, "activity_lines": [ 257.686661, 255.639996, 248.89215, 244.38932 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }