{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f478ceb8-9f16-48e4-a557-c845b01d56cc", "symbol": "HGSB", "name": "Haugesund Sparebank", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.038, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.768, "architecture_energy": 10.193, "architecture_maturity": 16.773, "architecture_confidence": 72.406, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.06, "rotation_up": 41.84, "upward_expansion": 29.77, "deceleration": 46.54, "rotation_down": 16.37, "downward_expansion": 18.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 158.728001, 157.781092, 158.956429, 159.129989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 158.0, "trend_reference": 158.396032, "distance_from_trend": -0.0025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 149.087767, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059778, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.491392, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.032422, "excess_performance": -0.092572, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0025, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011624, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059778, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0138, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032422, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.503107, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 315, "relative_activity": 0.126837, "balance": 0.503107, "dry_up": 0.163378, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024041, "annualized_volatility": 0.143148, "from_high_reference": -0.115082, "from_low_reference": 0.100209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.396032, "fair_value_reference": 149.087767, "structural_low": 149.277869, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000247, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.060867, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.053937, "worst_return": -0.004198, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.106583, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.097545, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106583, "worst_return": 0.106583, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.032677, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032677, "worst_return": 0.032677, 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018634, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-05", "close": 134.060623, "volume": 10225, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 129.615448, "volume": 13739, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-07-19", "close": 126.546165, "volume": 742, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 158.660002, 157.708364, 159.417175, 159.145908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 158.0, "volume": 218, "typical_volume": 2606.3, "trend": 158.229378, "fair_value": 149.006003, "relative_strength": -9.618817, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.802182, "energy": 14.060986, "activity_lines": [ 158.858668, 157.708364, 159.185074, 159.144787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 158.0, "volume": 315, "typical_volume": 2483.5, "trend": 158.396032, "fair_value": 149.087767, "relative_strength": -9.491392, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.767741, "energy": 10.192966, "activity_lines": [ 158.728001, 157.781092, 158.956429, 159.129989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }