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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.926, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.91, "architecture_energy": 37.57, "architecture_maturity": 35.583, "architecture_confidence": 59.817, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.56, "rotation_up": 50.55, "upward_expansion": 77.82, "deceleration": 64.54, "rotation_down": 21.96, "downward_expansion": 4.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.28, 78.163019, 77.143232, 76.295369 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 77.400002, "trend_reference": 75.308123, "distance_from_trend": 0.027778, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.776777, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063526, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.495087, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0633, "excess_performance": -0.378072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027778, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015705, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029715, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05904, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0633, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.412457, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 944478, "relative_activity": 0.883434, "balance": 1.412457, "dry_up": 0.868169, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031194, "annualized_volatility": 0.097348, "from_high_reference": -0.0325, "from_low_reference": 0.095564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.308123, "fair_value_reference": 72.776777, "structural_low": 71.673786, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.386488, "energy": 44.771448, "activity_lines": [ 78.673333, 78.240953, 77.002367, 76.154309 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 77.400002, "volume": 944478, "typical_volume": 1069098.15, "trend": 75.308123, "fair_value": 72.776777, "relative_strength": -26.495087, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.910439, "energy": 37.569675, "activity_lines": [ 78.28, 78.163019, 77.143232, 76.295369 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }