{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f47c2cdc-06d5-49e3-8bd8-a0fc04c2f409",
    "symbol": "COALINDIA",
    "name": "Coal India Limited",
    "exchange": "NSI",
    "country": "IN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NSEI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -39.733,
    "architecture_energy": 56.668,
    "architecture_maturity": 12.489,
    "architecture_confidence": 52.579,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 19.5,
        "rotation_up": 19.15,
        "upward_expansion": 20.17,
        "deceleration": 44.44,
        "rotation_down": 69.59,
        "downward_expansion": 64.17
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        417.720768,
        424.47865,
        436.958925,
        440.109064
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 415.25,
    "trend_reference": 439.937658,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.056116,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 380.783749,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090514,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.708476,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.027866,
    "excess_performance": 0.015843,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.056116,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036354,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090514,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.177222,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007085,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.183814,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027866,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.827026,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 23106169,
      "relative_activity": 0.504116,
      "balance": 1.827026,
      "dry_up": 0.735572,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.046885,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.244161,
      "from_high_reference": -0.154707,
      "from_low_reference": 0.172221
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 439.937658,
      "fair_value_reference": 380.783749,
      "structural_low": 400.894364,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.016272,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.038203,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.016272,
        "worst_return": -0.016272,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.094842,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.070482,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.094842,
        "worst_return": -0.094842,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.084911,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.079105,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.084911,
        "worst_return": -0.084911,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.049532,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.105193,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.049532,
        "worst_return": -0.049532,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-04-28",
        "end": "2023-06-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.01952,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-06-23",
        "end": "2023-09-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.067068,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-09-08",
        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.61987,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.049528,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.137504,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.074957,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.023582,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.012049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.01853,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.157402,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.055811,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.011174,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": -0.01401,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016024,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "fair_value": 377.920808,
        "relative_strength": 6.347711,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 414.149994,
        "volume": 58541694,
        "typical_volume": 47935529.15,
        "trend": 439.859049,
        "fair_value": 379.351764,
        "relative_strength": 1.459263,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -42.72093,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 415.25,
        "volume": 23106169,
        "typical_volume": 45835044.55,
        "trend": 439.937658,
        "fair_value": 380.783749,
        "relative_strength": 0.708476,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -39.733127,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}