{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f481c94f-78b5-4809-ac49-6a5d6382ddd7", "symbol": "XDDX", "name": "Xtrackers DAX ESG Screened UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.102, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.96, "architecture_energy": 72.203, "architecture_maturity": 11.761, "architecture_confidence": 87.033, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.76, "rotation_up": 61.69, "upward_expansion": 85.97, "deceleration": 49.33, "rotation_down": 18.77, "downward_expansion": 14.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 13892.733333, 13783.909091, 13636.552381, 13480.606452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14315.0, "trend_reference": 13353.333333, "distance_from_trend": 0.072017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11694.892678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224039, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.198393, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068922, "excess_performance": 0.017686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017082, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224039, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070172, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001984, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052264, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068922, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.262778, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15991, "relative_activity": 2.668992, "balance": 6.262778, "dry_up": 1.051549, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020994, "annualized_volatility": 0.185375, "from_high_reference": -0.033547, "from_low_reference": 0.209037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13353.333333, "fair_value_reference": 11694.892678, "structural_low": 11840.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011423, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007668, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.114533, "worst_return": -0.03071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022306, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008959, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156882, "worst_return": -0.081255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007674, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.047807, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.128972, "worst_return": -0.121195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114533, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176014, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011067, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", 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2250, "typical_volume": 8870.7, "trend": 13289.933333, "fair_value": 11618.293175, "relative_strength": -4.178238, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.46804, "energy": 28.328828, "activity_lines": [ 13606.733333, 13632.836364, 13447.504762, 13360.339785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13546.0, "volume": 1737, "typical_volume": 8544.5, "trend": 13300.066667, "fair_value": 11640.013371, "relative_strength": -4.537902, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.973075, "energy": 26.664641, "activity_lines": [ 13574.0, 13619.654545, 13478.261905, 13376.860215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13916.0, "volume": 5223, "typical_volume": 5537.6, "trend": 13322.866667, "fair_value": 11665.866737, "relative_strength": -2.91078, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.613709, "energy": 36.790987, "activity_lines": [ 13678.066667, 13668.072727, 13541.471429, 13416.597849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14315.0, "volume": 15991, "typical_volume": 5991.4, "trend": 13353.333333, "fair_value": 11694.892678, "relative_strength": -0.198393, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.959805, "energy": 72.202686, "activity_lines": [ 13892.733333, 13783.909091, 13636.552381, 13480.606452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }