{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f488e97a-798e-4bc8-b066-2a878b2fa5c7", "symbol": "GQQQ", "name": "ASTORIA US QUALITY GROWTH KINGS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.488, "architecture_energy": 28.375, "architecture_maturity": 60.9, "architecture_confidence": 87.554, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.8, "rotation_up": 34.25, "upward_expansion": 57.75, "deceleration": 88.24, "rotation_down": 26.28, "downward_expansion": 19.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.1962, 35.221773, 34.941421, 33.96002 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.1278, "trend_reference": 32.757224, "distance_from_trend": 0.102896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.564239, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264791, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.289384, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.183506, "excess_performance": -0.003948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008481, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012894, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010553, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183506, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.793187, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66456, "relative_activity": 0.853265, "balance": 1.793187, "dry_up": 0.76576, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046672, "annualized_volatility": 0.194592, "from_high_reference": -0.043859, "from_low_reference": 0.32019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.757224, "fair_value_reference": 28.564239, "structural_low": 27.67, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017071, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036453, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048237, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 25.017452, "volume": 389110, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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34.7151, "volume": 49471, "typical_volume": 76486.25, "trend": 32.574671, "fair_value": 28.485452, "relative_strength": 2.335811, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.62762, "energy": 22.397609, "activity_lines": [ 34.803927, 35.059805, 34.707487, 33.730786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.1278, "volume": 66456, "typical_volume": 77884.4, "trend": 32.757224, "fair_value": 28.564239, "relative_strength": 1.289384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.487912, "energy": 28.374607, "activity_lines": [ 35.1962, 35.221773, 34.941421, 33.96002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }