{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f492461c-f457-461e-8337-0a9d16b36ade",
    "symbol": "VASCONI",
    "name": "Grupo Vasconia, S.A.B.",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -87.68,
    "architecture_energy": 74.633,
    "architecture_maturity": 48.339,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.874,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 5.19,
        "rotation_up": 14.06,
        "upward_expansion": 12.0,
        "deceleration": 58.18,
        "rotation_down": 82.14,
        "downward_expansion": 90.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.203867,
        0.256982,
        0.412505,
        0.496735
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 0.129,
    "trend_reference": 0.588667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.780861,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1.214032,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.893743,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -79.351943,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.773684,
    "excess_performance": -0.719017,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.780861,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.257203,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.893743,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.364177,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.793519,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.916328,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.773684,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.090648,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2026355,
      "relative_activity": 3.899106,
      "balance": 0.090648,
      "dry_up": 3.567154,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 6
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.686345,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.025051,
      "from_high_reference": -0.914,
      "from_low_reference": 0.066116
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.588667,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.214032,
      "structural_low": 0.121,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 44,
        "median_return": -0.085852,
        "positive_rate": 0.204545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.772727,
        "median_excess_return": -0.075676,
        "regime_survival": 0.931818,
        "best_return": 0.345,
        "worst_return": -0.445783,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.192514,
        "positive_rate": 0.133333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.866667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.266404,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.111677,
        "worst_return": -0.506173,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.320962,
        "positive_rate": 0.125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": -0.356248,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 1.317708,
        "worst_return": -0.717791,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.673922,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.672297,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 2.021739,
        "worst_return": -0.818182,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2021-10-22",
        "end": "2021-11-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.072563,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2021-11-12",
        "end": "2022-03-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": -0.205236,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.075862,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.125654,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.264706,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-10",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -53.095036,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -76.560741,
        "energy": 91.665689,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.275,
        "volume": 1126438,
        "typical_volume": 210066.4,
        "trend": 0.6493,
        "fair_value": 1.282974,
        "relative_strength": -56.732299,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -77.308718,
        "energy": 91.328289,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.2996,
          0.384836,
          0.522186,
          0.580733
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.26,
        "volume": 1580722,
        "typical_volume": 286791.25,
        "trend": 0.6293,
        "fair_value": 1.26041,
        "relative_strength": -58.726504,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.516797,
        "energy": 74.706168,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.283067,
          0.343673,
          0.489619,
          0.555617
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.196,
        "volume": 2681846,
        "typical_volume": 419788.7,
        "trend": 0.608367,
        "fair_value": 1.237628,
        "relative_strength": -68.91168,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -84.268978,
        "energy": 73.459869,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.250867,
          0.300509,
          0.453076,
          0.527662
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.129,
        "volume": 2026355,
        "typical_volume": 519697.35,
        "trend": 0.588667,
        "fair_value": 1.214032,
        "relative_strength": -79.351943,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -87.680084,
        "energy": 74.632534,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.203867,
          0.256982,
          0.412505,
          0.496735
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}