{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f49e8bde-3ab0-47f5-ae3a-97610bcb1756", "symbol": "2495", "name": "Infortrend Technology, Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 85.101, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.855, "architecture_energy": 39.278, "architecture_maturity": 7.899, "architecture_confidence": 71.825, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.44, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 19.72, "deceleration": 56.7, "rotation_down": 68.31, "downward_expansion": 49.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.4, 39.811012, 42.253252, 41.146807 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 37.150002, "trend_reference": 39.05311, "distance_from_trend": -0.048731, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.941785, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.378899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.822741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.200383, "excess_performance": -0.145349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048731, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.378899, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351204, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.200383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.681103, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4189201, "relative_activity": 0.105537, "balance": 1.681103, "dry_up": 0.206591, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145911, "annualized_volatility": 0.776624, "from_high_reference": -0.301434, "from_low_reference": 0.896605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.05311, "fair_value_reference": 26.941785, "structural_low": 27.667525, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.021711, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.006792, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.028481, "worst_return": -0.102167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.047468, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002959, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051852, "worst_return": -0.077399, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.056659, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108642, "worst_return": -0.021672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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11074778, "typical_volume": 42057761.8, "trend": 38.545017, "fair_value": 26.694581, "relative_strength": -12.591706, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.52634, "energy": 37.032242, "activity_lines": [ 37.589518, 41.99386, 42.920618, 41.192744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 39.5, "volume": 6868035, "typical_volume": 40280375.85, "trend": 38.81701, "fair_value": 26.819626, "relative_strength": -9.562529, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.430565, "energy": 33.483161, "activity_lines": [ 37.489174, 41.034442, 42.711622, 41.254356 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 37.150002, "volume": 4189201, "typical_volume": 39694291.7, "trend": 39.05311, "fair_value": 26.941785, "relative_strength": -13.822741, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.854589, "energy": 39.277876, "activity_lines": [ 37.4, 39.811012, 42.253252, 41.146807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }