{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f49f240f-e321-4b1f-a17d-ec6bc1acdfc5", "symbol": "HOT-UN", "name": "American Hotel Income Properties REIT LP", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.745, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.934, "architecture_energy": 22.749, "architecture_maturity": 60.692, "architecture_confidence": 78.299, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.11, "rotation_up": 39.78, "upward_expansion": 65.69, "deceleration": 81.11, "rotation_down": 23.52, "downward_expansion": 13.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.549333, 0.551, 0.535429, 0.520161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.56, "trend_reference": 0.5025, "distance_from_trend": 0.114428, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.647563, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.135219, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.060196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.287356, "excess_performance": 0.166935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114428, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12521, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.135219, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175292, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.100602, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.287356, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.874464, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 189565, "relative_activity": 0.674056, "balance": 0.874464, "dry_up": 0.784851, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105082, "annualized_volatility": 0.467451, "from_high_reference": -0.096774, "from_low_reference": 1.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.5025, "fair_value_reference": 0.647563, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.018519, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.01372, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": -0.237705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016922, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023603, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.246377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.192976, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.128889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.147541, "worst_return": -0.238412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 0.65867, "relative_strength": 7.591894, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.764987, "energy": 30.658996, "activity_lines": [ 0.549333, 0.546727, 0.531024, 0.516274 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.56, "volume": 189565, "typical_volume": 281230.3, "trend": 0.5025, "fair_value": 0.647563, "relative_strength": 10.060196, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.933722, "energy": 22.749463, "activity_lines": [ 0.549333, 0.551, 0.535429, 0.520161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }