{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f4a1fcb1-3d41-43ac-9bca-409765051e31",
    "symbol": "SCC",
    "name": "PROSHARES ULTRASHORT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 54.036,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -46.691,
    "architecture_energy": 20.049,
    "architecture_maturity": 27.567,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.735,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.18,
        "rotation_up": 28.1,
        "upward_expansion": 25.06,
        "deceleration": 32.26,
        "rotation_down": 40.87,
        "downward_expansion": 54.73
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.804867,
        14.846317,
        14.749618,
        14.947306
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 13.7707,
    "trend_reference": 14.991949,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.08146,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 21.373024,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.355697,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -17.455121,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.062375,
    "excess_performance": -0.188,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08146,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010722,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.355697,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037156,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.174551,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033601,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062375,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.556848,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 72965,
      "relative_activity": 0.757871,
      "balance": 0.556848,
      "dry_up": 0.880362,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.087217,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.429186,
      "from_high_reference": -0.247503,
      "from_low_reference": 0.052684
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.991949,
      "fair_value_reference": 21.373024,
      "structural_low": 13.445652,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": -0.015715,
        "positive_rate": 0.409091,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.409091,
        "median_excess_return": -0.036011,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.355546,
        "worst_return": -0.203974,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.062231,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
        "median_excess_return": -0.136876,
        "regime_survival": 0.272727,
        "best_return": 0.39336,
        "worst_return": -0.341877,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.192591,
        "positive_rate": 0.142857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.142857,
        "median_excess_return": -0.300782,
        "regime_survival": 0.142857,
        "best_return": 0.765699,
        "worst_return": -0.296387,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.269024,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.366158,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.499697,
        "worst_return": -0.429147,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.024435,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.03231,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.04012,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.105073,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": 0.01006,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "end": "2026-05-01",
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        "return": -0.189924,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "return": -0.067961,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 17.09763,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 103553.5,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 106540.25,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 106993.65,
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        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 112092.9,
        "trend": 14.847871,
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        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "relative_strength": -21.235096,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 115354.1,
        "trend": 14.850025,
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        "stage": 1,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 138564,
        "typical_volume": 120210.35,
        "trend": 14.831954,
        "fair_value": 22.168964,
        "relative_strength": -12.177678,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 119238.4,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 116656.8,
        "trend": 14.812479,
        "fair_value": 21.853185,
        "relative_strength": -12.353434,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 112019.75,
        "trend": 14.829037,
        "fair_value": 21.760637,
        "relative_strength": -13.091007,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 4.680643,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.9732,
        "volume": 40700,
        "typical_volume": 109538.05,
        "trend": 14.869897,
        "fair_value": 21.663197,
        "relative_strength": -8.254857,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -0.690609,
        "energy": 3.559402,
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          14.74616,
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          14.793454,
          14.92731
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 16.6083,
        "volume": 73069,
        "typical_volume": 107866.7,
        "trend": 14.967036,
        "fair_value": 21.57998,
        "relative_strength": 2.646101,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 39.452438,
        "energy": 30.581104,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.3699,
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          15.039465
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.74,
        "volume": 152298,
        "typical_volume": 103527.4,
        "trend": 14.972133,
        "fair_value": 21.481906,
        "relative_strength": -9.195749,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 11.966009,
        "energy": 15.322669,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.23606,
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          15.024818
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 13.7707,
        "volume": 72965,
        "typical_volume": 96276.25,
        "trend": 14.991949,
        "fair_value": 21.373024,
        "relative_strength": -17.455121,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.691365,
        "energy": 20.048782,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.804867,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}