{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4a2d122-53bb-4913-9675-f69f6a87a518", "symbol": "CCO", "name": "The Calmer Co International Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.547, "architecture_energy": 51.591, "architecture_maturity": 58.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.779, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.67, "rotation_up": 20.59, "upward_expansion": 11.95, "deceleration": 39.68, "rotation_down": 60.72, "downward_expansion": 78.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001767, 0.001982, 0.002152, 0.00242 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.001, "trend_reference": 0.002867, "distance_from_trend": -0.651163, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.004935, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.797372, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.966933, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.777778, "excess_performance": -0.841483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.651163, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160976, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.797372, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391746, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.699669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.576496, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.777778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.181719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 124146737, "relative_activity": 8.991564, "balance": 0.181719, "dry_up": 3.604254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.730769, "annualized_volatility": 1.656733, "from_high_reference": -0.8, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002867, "fair_value_reference": 0.004935, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.061856, "positive_rate": 0.170732, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.052439, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.301948, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.301185, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.733333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.417614, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.379496, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.4, "worst_return": -0.833333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.004993, "relative_strength": -8.390555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.31182, "energy": 18.646205, "activity_lines": [ 0.002333, 0.0022, 0.002412, 0.002713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.003, "volume": 4720234, "typical_volume": 6425233.25, "trend": 0.00305, "fair_value": 0.004986, "relative_strength": -7.74157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.422528, "energy": 15.353154, "activity_lines": [ 0.0026, 0.002345, 0.002448, 0.00271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0015, "volume": 47415383, "typical_volume": 8611074.25, "trend": 0.002983, "fair_value": 0.00497, "relative_strength": -53.317099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.626441, "energy": 23.735293, "activity_lines": [ 0.0023, 0.002218, 0.002343, 0.00261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.002, "volume": 22773709, "typical_volume": 9606354.45, "trend": 0.00295, "fair_value": 0.004958, "relative_strength": -38.776994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.476208, "energy": 18.676208, "activity_lines": [ 0.0022, 0.002191, 0.002293, 0.002546 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.001, "volume": 124146737, "typical_volume": 13807023.75, "trend": 0.002867, "fair_value": 0.004935, "relative_strength": -69.966933, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.547422, "energy": 51.59076, "activity_lines": [ 0.001767, 0.001982, 0.002152, 0.00242 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }