{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4aea2ef-dc14-4344-89b4-19b9ea1b0a11", "symbol": "KER", "name": "Kering SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 56.241, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.684, "architecture_energy": 46.354, "architecture_maturity": 24.594, "architecture_confidence": 55.238, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.18, "rotation_up": 54.41, "upward_expansion": 52.02, "deceleration": 31.04, "rotation_down": 27.25, "downward_expansion": 24.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 270.096662, 264.279997, 257.854151, 256.887387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 286.649994, "trend_reference": 258.844879, "distance_from_trend": 0.10742, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 280.36175, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022429, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.573992, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110831, "excess_performance": 0.05752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10742, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20806, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043069, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110831, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.331955, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1434674, "relative_activity": 1.241248, "balance": 3.331955, "dry_up": 1.390417, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067122, "annualized_volatility": 0.43015, "from_high_reference": -0.18748, "from_low_reference": 0.380642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 258.844879, "fair_value_reference": 280.36175, "structural_low": 222.601423, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.021704, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019165, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.153688, "worst_return": -0.204642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.123345, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.088821, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.568613, "worst_return": -0.322291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.100274, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.137324, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.4688, "worst_return": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 284.549988, "volume": 2417529, "typical_volume": 1162046.9, "trend": 259.827795, "fair_value": 281.59558, "relative_strength": 1.382243, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.572179, "energy": 6.210297, "activity_lines": [ 259.619997, 259.169374, 254.546991, 255.156923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 286.649994, "volume": 1434674, "typical_volume": 1155832.25, "trend": 258.844879, "fair_value": 280.36175, "relative_strength": -0.573992, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.684454, "energy": 46.353781, "activity_lines": [ 270.096662, 264.279997, 257.854151, 256.887387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }