{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4b475a1-a4f5-4782-83ee-4ccc83f08ff4", "symbol": "MEG", "name": "Megado Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.539, "architecture_energy": 19.074, "architecture_maturity": 47.426, "architecture_confidence": 54.269, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.08, "rotation_up": 35.52, "upward_expansion": 30.44, "deceleration": 50.04, "rotation_down": 23.61, "downward_expansion": 45.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0192, 0.018345, 0.018167, 0.019323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.0223, "distance_from_trend": -0.192825, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021362, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.157394, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.739624, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37931, "excess_performance": -0.443016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146684, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.157394, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074037, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.457408, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1444939, "relative_activity": 0.964121, "balance": 5.457408, "dry_up": 1.053709, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134615, "annualized_volatility": 0.721517, "from_high_reference": -0.560976, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0223, "fair_value_reference": 0.021362, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.092718, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.325581, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.17521, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.44, "worst_return": -0.55, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.296296, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.295868, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.066667, "worst_return": -0.59, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.61, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.648075, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.692308, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.298421, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.545455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.481481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.236842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.058, "volume": 3668258, "typical_volume": 5049952.2, "trend": 0.050533, "fair_value": 0.104197, "relative_strength": 0.215296, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"energy": 48.056313, "activity_lines": [ 0.016733, 0.017036, 0.018019, 0.020342 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.018, "volume": 921968, "typical_volume": 1692269.45, "trend": 0.0233, "fair_value": 0.022112, "relative_strength": -32.121994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.100921, "energy": 41.588885, "activity_lines": [ 0.017133, 0.017145, 0.017867, 0.01997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.019, "volume": 698003, "typical_volume": 1343448.0, "trend": 0.022967, "fair_value": 0.021811, "relative_strength": -27.01124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.772312, "energy": 31.053483, "activity_lines": [ 0.0178, 0.017455, 0.017881, 0.019692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.022, "volume": 3251913, "typical_volume": 1442753.85, "trend": 0.022767, "fair_value": 0.021599, "relative_strength": -16.235598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.75083, "energy": 14.313098, "activity_lines": [ 0.019333, 0.018309, 0.018214, 0.01963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 1444939, "typical_volume": 1498711.0, "trend": 0.0223, "fair_value": 0.021362, "relative_strength": -32.739624, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.539208, "energy": 19.074104, "activity_lines": [ 0.0192, 0.018345, 0.018167, 0.019323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }