{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4b63598-8ab0-4e61-938b-61a14fd71bfa", "symbol": "FLRY3", "name": "Fleury S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 62.947, "architecture_energy": 75.514, "architecture_maturity": 15.536, "architecture_confidence": 81.409, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.84, "rotation_up": 76.62, "upward_expansion": 62.69, "deceleration": 23.74, "rotation_down": 16.18, "downward_expansion": 23.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.446, 16.716909, 16.252143, 16.187807 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.950001, "trend_reference": 16.207667, "distance_from_trend": 0.1692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.529983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400593, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.711707, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119315, "excess_performance": 0.176363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.1692, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151308, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.177117, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.028438, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24208600, "relative_activity": 2.59012, "balance": 2.028438, "dry_up": 1.349519, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047818, "annualized_volatility": 0.289971, "from_high_reference": -0.039534, "from_low_reference": 0.462886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.207667, "fair_value_reference": 13.529983, "structural_low": 14.58, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0277, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008164, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.114704, "worst_return": -0.040298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029888, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.035262, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099614, "worst_return": -0.043659, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002956, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148315, "worst_return": -0.214927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03443, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146477, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037112, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062112, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.8057, "energy": 12.505525, "activity_lines": [ 15.79, 15.569273, 15.715667, 15.867785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.59, "volume": 9027600, "typical_volume": 10243410.0, "trend": 15.97, "fair_value": 13.443945, "relative_strength": 2.392758, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.946957, "energy": 23.390335, "activity_lines": [ 16.129333, 15.751636, 15.79019, 15.912215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.26, "volume": 8130000, "typical_volume": 9569820.0, "trend": 16.015667, "fair_value": 13.463324, "relative_strength": 0.306594, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.428528, "energy": 25.753751, "activity_lines": [ 16.264667, 15.873818, 15.834381, 15.930925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.14, "volume": 9087000, "typical_volume": 9155425.0, "trend": 16.092667, "fair_value": 13.489031, "relative_strength": 3.449558, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.820121, "energy": 50.795994, "activity_lines": [ 16.604667, 16.144, 15.961238, 16.003462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.950001, "volume": 24208600, "typical_volume": 9346515.0, "trend": 16.207667, "fair_value": 13.529983, "relative_strength": 17.711707, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 62.947117, "energy": 75.513664, "activity_lines": [ 17.446, 16.716909, 16.252143, 16.187807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }