{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4bc6a27-a832-490b-beec-42dc9b990225", "symbol": "LAKPRE", "name": "Lakshmi Precision Screws Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.354, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.025, "architecture_energy": 10.542, "architecture_maturity": 16.021, "architecture_confidence": 70.357, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.51, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 18.76, "deceleration": 53.95, "rotation_down": 41.17, "downward_expansion": 39.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.091333, 5.105818, 5.233143, 5.222 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 5.201333, "distance_from_trend": -0.000256, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.415577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039807, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.646503, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033457, "excess_performance": 0.010252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000256, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005925, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039807, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090519, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117101, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033457, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.629452, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1163, "relative_activity": 0.141702, "balance": 0.629452, "dry_up": 0.688925, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124704, "annualized_volatility": 0.518628, "from_high_reference": -0.319372, "from_low_reference": 0.150442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.201333, "fair_value_reference": 5.415577, "structural_low": 4.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.022796, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.032917, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.647541, "worst_return": -0.1274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.057142, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": -0.251309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016729, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.00548, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": -0.175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.099757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197917, "worst_return": -0.111693, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066019, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067151, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.520492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09973, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095808, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.332661, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025743, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192246, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.0, "volume": 10600, "typical_volume": 6818.25, "trend": 4.725, "fair_value": 5.235577, "relative_strength": -10.605068, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.103333, 5.299091, 5.289524, 5.247914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.3, "volume": 12615, "typical_volume": 8498.45, "trend": 5.197, "fair_value": 5.411859, "relative_strength": 0.938501, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.909685, "energy": 10.711307, "activity_lines": [ 5.181333, 5.279091, 5.297143, 5.25514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.1, "volume": 12261, "typical_volume": 8775.8, "trend": 5.199, "fair_value": 5.412821, "relative_strength": -3.561494, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.842471, "energy": 4.406558, "activity_lines": [ 5.192667, 5.216545, 5.284762, 5.248882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.05, "volume": 3743, "typical_volume": 8539.6, "trend": 5.2, "fair_value": 5.414744, "relative_strength": -2.088975, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.86323, "energy": 5.294077, "activity_lines": [ 5.180667, 5.154545, 5.267, 5.239269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.93, "volume": 5450, "typical_volume": 8653.8, "trend": 5.197667, "fair_value": 5.414295, "relative_strength": -6.536473, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.521307, "energy": 6.66307, "activity_lines": [ 5.098667, 5.094182, 5.23681, 5.221849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 1163, "typical_volume": 8207.35, "trend": 5.201333, "fair_value": 5.415577, "relative_strength": -1.646503, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.025448, "energy": 10.54191, "activity_lines": [ 5.091333, 5.105818, 5.233143, 5.222 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }