{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4bde59c-107c-4c7d-9fec-288a539c01c0", "symbol": "GMNY", "name": "GOLDMAN SACHS DYNAMIC NEW YORK MUNICIPAL INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.638, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.971, "architecture_energy": 28.421, "architecture_maturity": 43.418, "architecture_confidence": 54.146, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.82, "rotation_up": 16.86, "upward_expansion": 17.86, "deceleration": 68.61, "rotation_down": 58.58, "downward_expansion": 38.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.634293, 49.792282, 49.805625, 49.780444 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 49.723, "trend_reference": 49.75719, "distance_from_trend": -0.000687, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.374133, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.219196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000391, "excess_performance": -0.126016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000687, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005105, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005656, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010572, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000391, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.90257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12868, "relative_activity": 0.516082, "balance": 1.90257, "dry_up": 0.574276, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005336, "annualized_volatility": 0.033475, "from_high_reference": -0.011397, "from_low_reference": 0.049819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.75719, "fair_value_reference": 48.374133, "structural_low": 49.061991, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.003226, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081939, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.015838, "worst_return": -0.009387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.020368, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.132226, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.020368, "worst_return": 0.020368, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 15045, "typical_volume": 26574.3, "trend": 49.75067, "fair_value": 48.361407, "relative_strength": -7.828741, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.694539, "energy": 29.199387, "activity_lines": [ 49.653602, 49.823095, 49.807162, 49.782229 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.723, "volume": 12868, "typical_volume": 24934.0, "trend": 49.75719, "fair_value": 48.374133, "relative_strength": -10.219196, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.970688, "energy": 28.42079, "activity_lines": [ 49.634293, 49.792282, 49.805625, 49.780444 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }