{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4da8906-9f81-436d-b43b-3e963cc1d54b", "symbol": "000802", "name": "Beijing Jingxi Culture & Tourism Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.062, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.09, "architecture_energy": 23.094, "architecture_maturity": 32.571, "architecture_confidence": 54.772, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.31, "rotation_up": 22.73, "upward_expansion": 15.97, "deceleration": 62.63, "rotation_down": 38.16, "downward_expansion": 61.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.936667, 3.885273, 4.13619, 4.189527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.27, "trend_reference": 4.284667, "distance_from_trend": -0.003423, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.379679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.206272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.446569, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.057395, "excess_performance": -0.064795, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003423, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.206272, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084466, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063395, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057395, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.184996, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 438208935, "relative_activity": 2.758843, "balance": 2.184996, "dry_up": 1.962331, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123942, "annualized_volatility": 0.449262, "from_high_reference": -0.313505, "from_low_reference": 0.267062 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.284667, "fair_value_reference": 5.379679, "structural_low": 3.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.025651, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.014357, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.30303, "worst_return": -0.160643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007284, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013927, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.525862, "worst_return": -0.178761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015119, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021428, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.203478, "worst_return": -0.088748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.031043, "energy": 65.353, "activity_lines": [ 3.782667, 4.163636, 4.270048, 4.316194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.6, "volume": 204600173, "typical_volume": 115845297.0, "trend": 4.378667, "fair_value": 5.456538, "relative_strength": -22.068907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.629199, "energy": 71.659874, "activity_lines": [ 3.682667, 4.009636, 4.206476, 4.262516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.72, "volume": 213501097, "typical_volume": 122648912.65, "trend": 4.328667, "fair_value": 5.430321, "relative_strength": -19.023959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.546979, "energy": 62.750157, "activity_lines": [ 3.679333, 3.901091, 4.158381, 4.220022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.88, "volume": 390460049, "typical_volume": 139738147.3, "trend": 4.294, "fair_value": 5.400769, "relative_strength": -13.44822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.95853, "energy": 39.406117, "activity_lines": [ 3.755333, 3.847818, 4.128048, 4.191075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.27, "volume": 438208935, "typical_volume": 158837934.8, "trend": 4.284667, "fair_value": 5.379679, "relative_strength": -8.446569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.090345, "energy": 23.093837, "activity_lines": [ 3.936667, 3.885273, 4.13619, 4.189527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }