{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4dcae55-fb03-4b0a-8f32-e4b377c7d7b7", "symbol": "S1TX34", "name": "Seagate Technology Holdings plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.204, "architecture_energy": 19.829, "architecture_maturity": 79.013, "architecture_confidence": 94.749, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.57, "rotation_up": 23.58, "upward_expansion": 55.36, "deceleration": 91.09, "rotation_down": 28.21, "downward_expansion": 19.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 4254.06735, 4399.019846, 4250.733598, 3827.015464 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4155.75, "trend_reference": 3256.597961, "distance_from_trend": 0.276102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1138.85844, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.649049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 69.998849, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.857196, "excess_performance": 0.914244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.276102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.44475, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.649049, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.155768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.699988, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.562476, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.857196, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.386262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5940, "relative_activity": 1.848682, "balance": 1.386262, "dry_up": 1.386356, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18631, "annualized_volatility": 0.672334, "from_high_reference": -0.296092, "from_low_reference": 4.009415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3256.597961, "fair_value_reference": 1138.85844, "structural_low": 1778.555782, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.00783, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.209977, "worst_return": -0.19628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065309, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.099721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.431235, "worst_return": -0.325836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066652, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001137, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.506522, "worst_return": -0.268976, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066864, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095028, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075209, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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3682.842592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4331.120117, "volume": 4461, "typical_volume": 3063.45, "trend": 3172.376518, "fair_value": 1114.050211, "relative_strength": 76.043296, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.937434, "energy": 24.010725, "activity_lines": [ 4316.706689, 4468.808114, 4213.54968, 3763.572013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4155.75, "volume": 5940, "typical_volume": 3213.1, "trend": 3256.597961, "fair_value": 1138.85844, "relative_strength": 69.998849, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.204426, "energy": 19.828673, "activity_lines": [ 4254.06735, 4399.019846, 4250.733598, 3827.015464 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }