{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4e08efe-d95f-4dd7-b5ed-683c3f8fd7ab", "symbol": "300394", "name": "Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.206, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.718, "architecture_energy": 36.151, "architecture_maturity": 3.915, "architecture_confidence": 47.718, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.39, "rotation_up": 14.48, "upward_expansion": 18.45, "deceleration": 57.5, "rotation_down": 65.02, "downward_expansion": 45.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 209.435329, 236.351502, 254.989824, 251.116411 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 230.679993, "trend_reference": 236.337828, "distance_from_trend": -0.02394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 92.01245, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.507052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.780979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.303069, "excess_performance": 0.295669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02394, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.222067, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.507052, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.715714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.21781, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.303069, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.425991, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 349025025, "relative_activity": 1.3911, "balance": 1.425991, "dry_up": 0.996456, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.259445, "annualized_volatility": 1.022485, "from_high_reference": -0.383388, "from_low_reference": 2.304059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 236.337828, "fair_value_reference": 92.01245, "structural_low": 155.550003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.027426, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049584, "worst_return": -0.104437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.315009, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.287188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.671559, "worst_return": -0.041542, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.695543, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.739039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.283976, "worst_return": 0.107109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 90.74194, "relative_strength": -3.571711, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.420494, "energy": 43.677784, "activity_lines": [ 206.342665, 243.365734, 257.487168, 251.296479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 230.679993, "volume": 349025025, "typical_volume": 250898625.8, "trend": 236.337828, "fair_value": 92.01245, "relative_strength": 21.780979, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.717853, "energy": 36.150659, "activity_lines": [ 209.435329, 236.351502, 254.989824, 251.116411 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }