{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4edeb15-6dae-42f3-bc82-8c7346a1100e", "symbol": "6227", "name": "Macnica Galaxy Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.978, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.613, "architecture_energy": 28.702, "architecture_maturity": 47.931, "architecture_confidence": 51.671, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.98, "rotation_up": 37.58, "upward_expansion": 66.98, "deceleration": 72.35, "rotation_down": 27.48, "downward_expansion": 9.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 119.033333, 118.281818, 117.944762, 112.065592 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 124.0, "trend_reference": 104.136667, "distance_from_trend": 0.190743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.443442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.622114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.125669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.512195, "excess_performance": 0.070823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.190743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125802, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.622114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071257, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002279, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.512195, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.56096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3132140, "relative_activity": 0.67405, "balance": 1.56096, "dry_up": 0.498424, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108871, "annualized_volatility": 0.454299, "from_high_reference": -0.132867, "from_low_reference": 0.589744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.136667, "fair_value_reference": 76.443442, "structural_low": 78.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.072817, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": 0.027112, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.202091, "worst_return": -0.071053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.093656, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.103927, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.163763, "worst_return": -0.031419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.147006, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.122751, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.356653, "worst_return": 0.030884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 4429433.3, "trend": 99.306667, "fair_value": 74.37749, "relative_strength": -17.440921, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.567989, "energy": 20.234296, "activity_lines": [ 116.033333, 120.254545, 114.296191, 107.540216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.5, "volume": 1231298, "typical_volume": 4448545.6, "trend": 100.356667, "fair_value": 74.871846, "relative_strength": -12.886559, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.523203, "energy": 18.957179, "activity_lines": [ 114.566667, 118.518182, 114.958096, 108.455915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.5, "volume": 2614470, "typical_volume": 4504611.15, "trend": 101.416667, "fair_value": 75.346769, "relative_strength": -11.210951, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.612101, "energy": 19.305664, "activity_lines": [ 113.666667, 116.981818, 115.474286, 109.303871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.0, "volume": 2286296, "typical_volume": 4550370.9, "trend": 102.776667, "fair_value": 75.889876, "relative_strength": -5.56192, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.194451, "energy": 20.915412, "activity_lines": [ 116.133333, 117.436364, 116.749048, 110.696345 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 124.0, "volume": 3132140, "typical_volume": 4646745.65, "trend": 104.136667, "fair_value": 76.443442, "relative_strength": -7.125669, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.61307, "energy": 28.702351, "activity_lines": [ 119.033333, 118.281818, 117.944762, 112.065592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }