{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4f04748-bf63-4735-962a-a1b0f12cf0c1", "symbol": "VALE", "name": "Vale SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 48.772, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.069, "architecture_energy": 39.358, "architecture_maturity": 9.207, "architecture_confidence": 92.635, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.63, "rotation_up": 18.31, "upward_expansion": 5.33, "deceleration": 47.87, "rotation_down": 54.25, "downward_expansion": 78.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.733333, 14.821636, 15.341048, 15.536237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.71, "trend_reference": 15.734, "distance_from_trend": -0.065082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.336797, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.692754, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.097546, "excess_performance": -0.223171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050823, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219021, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056928, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.427117, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132664207, "relative_activity": 1.161601, "balance": 0.427117, "dry_up": 0.963563, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064748, "annualized_volatility": 0.325628, "from_high_reference": -0.180045, "from_low_reference": 0.549139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.734, "fair_value_reference": 11.336797, "structural_low": 13.94, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.027649, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.004353, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.163282, "worst_return": -0.15088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007965, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.017751, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.21857, "worst_return": -0.034466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.208864, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.116942, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461364, "worst_return": -0.027166, "sufficient": true 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.145354, "energy": 60.416996, "activity_lines": [ 14.621333, 15.044909, 15.579619, 15.690817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.79, "volume": 111567468, "typical_volume": 120436012.1, "trend": 15.649333, "fair_value": 11.282319, "relative_strength": 0.063311, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.69052, "energy": 60.674134, "activity_lines": [ 14.609333, 14.931818, 15.494095, 15.638731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.06, "volume": 102444433, "typical_volume": 115568827.8, "trend": 15.709333, "fair_value": 11.309399, "relative_strength": 0.287493, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.106517, "energy": 51.713818, "activity_lines": [ 14.729333, 14.895636, 15.435143, 15.60071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.71, "volume": 132664207, "typical_volume": 114208047.65, "trend": 15.734, "fair_value": 11.336797, "relative_strength": -5.692754, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.068772, "energy": 39.358137, "activity_lines": [ 14.733333, 14.821636, 15.341048, 15.536237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }