{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4f8b9c5-ff22-40c6-95dd-7bc3c1d636a3", "symbol": "TNYA", "name": "Tenaya Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.443, "architecture_energy": 7.146, "architecture_maturity": 33.247, "architecture_confidence": 44.337, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.55, "rotation_up": 31.64, "upward_expansion": 46.05, "deceleration": 69.55, "rotation_down": 26.26, "downward_expansion": 30.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.76164, 0.767638, 0.77435, 0.767182 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.7268, "trend_reference": 0.75639, "distance_from_trend": -0.03912, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.988697, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.634535, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.799623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104375, "excess_performance": -0.291828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03912, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111565, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.634535, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047874, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.357996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.39793, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11638101, "relative_activity": 0.750487, "balance": 0.39793, "dry_up": 0.60103, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174463, "annualized_volatility": 1.06896, "from_high_reference": -0.690723, "from_low_reference": 0.367193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.75639, "fair_value_reference": 1.988697, "structural_low": 0.5316, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020931, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.024684, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.864912, "worst_return": -0.2719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.579125, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.467474, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.07377, "worst_return": -0.571733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051155, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.142693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.501629, "worst_return": -0.5936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.007591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.312958, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.482085, "worst_return": -0.497267, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001916, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.283582, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064103, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019943, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.392727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.58089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.219555, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.685058, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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-24.344077, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.074798, "energy": 21.282385, "activity_lines": [ 0.78834, 0.782904, 0.77661, 0.764967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.817, "volume": 10247924, "typical_volume": 19337150.1, "trend": 0.756767, "fair_value": 2.063171, "relative_strength": -25.548053, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.912686, "energy": 24.49681, "activity_lines": [ 0.806193, 0.785193, 0.781528, 0.769103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.775, "volume": 7415551, "typical_volume": 17141834.2, "trend": 0.757463, "fair_value": 2.037177, "relative_strength": -27.927722, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.822557, "energy": 23.775426, "activity_lines": [ 0.803033, 0.783173, 0.78123, 0.77028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7403, "volume": 7980110, "typical_volume": 15715666.5, "trend": 0.75765, "fair_value": 2.012371, "relative_strength": -31.41416, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.210415, "energy": 14.298184, "activity_lines": [ 0.785347, 0.77634, 0.778166, 0.769172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7268, "volume": 11638101, "typical_volume": 15507408.25, "trend": 0.75639, "fair_value": 1.988697, "relative_strength": -35.799623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.443088, "energy": 7.145507, "activity_lines": [ 0.76164, 0.767638, 0.77435, 0.767182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }