{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4f905a4-f553-4473-9fa3-31178b2e4e0c", "symbol": "DARP", "name": "TIDAL TRUST II GRIZZLE GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.064, "architecture_energy": 21.548, "architecture_maturity": 54.832, "architecture_confidence": 93.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.52, "rotation_up": 29.3, "upward_expansion": 55.86, "deceleration": 87.89, "rotation_down": 28.62, "downward_expansion": 17.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.083847, 56.416142, 56.386123, 55.039563 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 58.1324, "trend_reference": 53.223253, "distance_from_trend": 0.092237, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.061242, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.612047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.191418, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.190416, "excess_performance": 0.064791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092237, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082506, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.612047, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06524, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071914, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.190416, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.264807, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181933, "relative_activity": 3.330322, "balance": 2.264807, "dry_up": 1.238398, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058839, "annualized_volatility": 0.209612, "from_high_reference": -0.058737, "from_low_reference": 0.666151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.223253, "fair_value_reference": 36.061242, "structural_low": 44.99, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.136628, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.0107, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136628, "worst_return": 0.136628, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.203788, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.051194, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203788, "worst_return": 0.203788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156425, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.332472, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", 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"activity_lines": [ 56.65864, 57.063611, 55.993336, 54.406062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.6317, "volume": 16345, "typical_volume": 58358.85, "trend": 52.562837, "fair_value": 35.793233, "relative_strength": 6.237182, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.995328, "energy": 18.928132, "activity_lines": [ 55.818607, 56.56466, 56.040741, 54.558552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.7274, "volume": 47722, "typical_volume": 51505.0, "trend": 52.841303, "fair_value": 35.916986, "relative_strength": 4.873538, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.236107, "energy": 18.031446, "activity_lines": [ 55.313973, 56.150544, 56.065212, 54.698202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.1324, "volume": 181933, "typical_volume": 54629.25, "trend": 53.223253, "fair_value": 36.061242, "relative_strength": 7.191418, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.064419, "energy": 21.548404, "activity_lines": [ 56.083847, 56.416142, 56.386123, 55.039563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }