{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4fa8758-3bcd-423e-a1ba-f4cd2e49ed0c", "symbol": "SBIO", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ Biotech UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.798, "architecture_energy": 60.065, "architecture_maturity": 34.796, "architecture_confidence": 78.446, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 60.93, "upward_expansion": 82.73, "deceleration": 64.72, "rotation_down": 22.19, "downward_expansion": 9.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.483333, 67.952364, 65.664905, 64.342688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 69.919998, "trend_reference": 62.978833, "distance_from_trend": 0.110214, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.931005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400332, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.669102, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.132308, "excess_performance": 0.081072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110214, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042566, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400332, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086691, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013988, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.335454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40357, "relative_activity": 0.503615, "balance": 0.335454, "dry_up": 1.450995, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034358, "annualized_volatility": 0.190141, "from_high_reference": -0.026184, "from_low_reference": 0.506896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.978833, "fair_value_reference": 49.931005, "structural_low": 57.529999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.004515, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.012189, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.095669, "worst_return": -0.083664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009565, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031421, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.244282, "worst_return": -0.072725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01497, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.065257, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.292603, "worst_return": -0.231577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 8.006553, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.533207, "energy": 86.65486, "activity_lines": [ 68.660669, 66.956729, 64.671525, 63.585549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.919998, "volume": 96768, "typical_volume": 83617.7, "trend": 62.679167, "fair_value": 49.753665, "relative_strength": 4.77044, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.183522, "energy": 63.86654, "activity_lines": [ 68.045334, 67.231092, 65.043191, 63.875538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.919998, "volume": 40357, "typical_volume": 80134.65, "trend": 62.978833, "fair_value": 49.931005, "relative_strength": 8.669102, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.797734, "energy": 60.06509, "activity_lines": [ 68.483333, 67.952364, 65.664905, 64.342688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }